Long-term Count for Gold, posted 1/22/26

 

1/22/26: Above is my long-term count for gold from the 1905 low.  In golds 12-decade yearly chart, I am counting wave 1 as ending in 1934, wave 2 in 1949, wave 3 in 1980 and wave 4 in 1999. The wave 1 length was 29 years and the wave 3 length was two years longer at 31 years. If wave 5 is two years longer than wave 3 that equates to 33 years in 2032. 33 years is just one year below Fibonacci number 34 and which occurs in 2033. Based on those observations and in relation to the long term upper parallel channel line that gives the following upper price targets for gold: 2028  - 23300, 2029 – 24600, 2030 – 26540, 2031 – 28600, 2033 – 33200, 2034 – 35800. That 2028 to 2034 time span looks like the most reasonable period for wave 5 to finish out and with a price target of 23300 to 35800.

S&P 500 Wave 2 Correction From Recent Highs. Updated 7/16/25 and 12/9/25.

 

The S&P 500 has most likely started the Wave 2 Correction and appears to have seen the start with the  12/6/24 and 1/24/25 double top that was tested on Friday: If wave 2 is more of a drawn out time correction then it should be a fairly mild price correction as was stated in the September tweet, perhaps 1/3 of wave 1(yellow arrow on chart), and it may last through much of 2025. Otherwise a shorter term wave 2 may only last up to about 3-4 months and correct up to about 50% to 62% of wave 1(orange arrow) up from the October/2022 low. Either way, my view is that the low of wave 2 is in sight in 2025. I'll be watching for any indications that this outlook is wrong. Update 7/16/25: As has been seen wave 2 ended at the early April lows. S&P 500 may be near the high of the year but it may not be the high of wave 3 - it may be just a correction along the way. Update 12/09/25: The correction along the way came from a higher level in September to November and was mild as expected. Another move up to higher highs in early 2026 could complete 5 waves up from 2009. A topping process could also develop into 2027 or early 2028. That process could produce limited new highs. A parabolic or blowoff top I think would be a lower probability. Either way I will be avoiding this market.

S&P 500 long term trendline within reach

The SP500 strength may indicate that it wants to reach the 11 decade trendline(red dotted line) sooner rather than later instead of later rather than sooner. The gold arrows show possible paths for each count. It is also possible that both wave 1 of 5 and wave 5 of 5 hit that trendline.

 

Stock Market Update 6/4/23, Updated 8/19/23, 3/11/24

 

Biweekly chart of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF as of 6/4/23. The October/2022 stock market low should be the final low and the current market is showing signs of wanting to melt up. I would not be surprised to see a test of the all-time highs sooner rather than later... Possibly even July to September. The blue line shows a possible track of my favored count based on estimated wave relationships. Primary wave 1 of cycle wave 5 is shown as a surmised high around August. Update, 8/19/23: The recent decline has not changed my view...still looking for the January/2022 high to be reached or exceeded by the end of 2023 or January/2024. Update 3/11/24: The major US stock indexes look to be at or near the 2024 highs with a possible secondary high by mid-year. The Dow Industrials peaked on 2/26/24.

Ethereum Wave Five

 

A monthly chart of Ethereum showing my favored count. This count is showing a five wave leading diagonal with a possible trajectory for the 5th wave. A lesser possibility in my view is that the above labeled wave 3 is just waves one through three of an impulsive wave 3 (not shown). 

Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave pattern to the downside

The TLT etf which tracks the Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave expanding diagonal pattern to the downside on the monthly charts as shown by the blue labeling. It has a current dividend yield of 1.90%.

The 5th wave has had a run down close to the lower trendline but has not reached it. 5th waves in an expanding diagonal usually end before hitting that trendline so the 5th wave may be complete or very close to complete.

With that completed 5th wave count, if it is making a zigzag, wave b has an average retracement of wave a of 58% which is at 149.8. The range of that average retracement is within 20% which equates to 136-164. The 58% retracement level is shown on the chart below at letter b on the yellow labeling. The green trendline looks like a good place to put a price target and that trendline reaches the 58% retracement level around January of 2028. It hits the 136 level around January/2025 and the 164 level around January/2031. That makes for a six year time span, 2025-2031 to watch for that trendline to be reached by wave b.

Quarterly chart of iShares 20+ year treasury bond etf(TLT). Click to enlarge.