Monday, April 2, 2018

Primary Wave 4 to be Completed Today?

Primary wave 4 may end today. It appears to have formed an ABC zigzag style combination as shown on the chart. The C wave looks to be forming a triangle. That count would only require an E wave decline to complete the triangle. The E wave would probably complete at todays low. 

A completion of primary wave 4 would portend a move upward to first test the February high and then the January high. A move above the January high would probably confirm that primary wave 4 is complete.

An alternative possibility is that the current decline is the C wave of a larger triangle or combination. I think this possibility would have lower odds based on other technical indicators and sentiment.

Click to enlarge

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

A 2nd Elliott Wave Count Possibility

This long term wave count is an alternative to the long term count given in the last update.
In this count, primary wave 3 topped out and primary wave 4 of cycle wave 1 has been in progress since the January 2018 high. 

Primary wave 4 may be forming a triangle formation on the daily chart that may be completing soon if not yesterday. 

I give the odds for this count at about 55% as fundamental factors and cycles seem to point to the more bearish count at this time.

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Long Term Update

Primary wave 3 of cycle wave 1 in progress
Recent February low may have been price low of wave 2 of primary wave 3