Stocks Update - 9/27/09

Stocks made a top on Wednesday per the 9/20 blog post forecast. The price target for the top was not reached but the minimum requirements for five waves up were met per the 9/23 blog post. The top of wave five only has to go one tick above the high of wave four for the count to be valid and wave structure trumps price targets when a wave is completing. The forecast was for 250 points up on the Dow from the end of wave four to the top of wave five and the actual number was 138 points up. From the low of wave four to the top of wave five the move was 250 points, so that was an interesting coincidence.

The next swing cycle date is Monday, 9/28, so wave a down from last weeks top may end by Tuesday with sideways or higher price action to the end of the week as wave a is retraced. The correction started with a key reversal on Wednesday, but so far seems fairly mild. So it is to early to determine what the wave count is from the March low to last weeks top.