Ethereum Wave Five

 

A monthly chart of Ethereum showing my favored count. This count is showing a five wave leading diagonal with a possible trajectory for the 5th wave. A lesser possibility in my view is that the above labeled wave 3 is just waves one through three of an impulsive wave 3 (not shown). 

Bitcoin Diagonal 5th Wave Still in Progress - New Count

The move last week below the June/2021 low has changed the wave count for Bitcoin. I am still counting it as an ending diagonal as shown in prior posts, but it is now a larger diagonal formation. The move down from the Nov/2021 high is wave 2 of the larger diagonal. With this count, there could still be another move down below the May 12th low but it is not a requirement. 

Bi-monthly chart of Bitcoin showing updated count (orange labeling). Original diagonal 5th wave count is shown with purple labeling (updated in 2/6/22 post & originally given in this blog's Aug/2021 post). Long term count from 2010 is shown with blue labeling (long term count was originally given on this blog in January of 2021) . Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin 5th Wave Now in Progress

I am counting wave 4 as completed on Bitcoin at the January low. That leaves the 5th and final wave of the diagonal 5th wave before a potentially long and/or deep bear market. It would complete the wave count from the 2010 low. The orange labeling on the chart below shows the ending diagonal 5th wave count. The blue labeling is the count from the 2010 low.

Notice 3/30/22: The ending diagonal count (orange labeling) was originally given 6 months ago on this blog on the 8/5/21 post. The long-term count (blue labeling) was originally given 13 months ago in January of 2021.

The aforementioned analysis and counts were original research by this blogs author.

Any mention or use of these blog posts contents should give attribution to this blog.  

(Please note that the original posted chart was accidently deleted on 5/14/22. This original 5th wave count can be seen on the latest Bitcoin post of 5/14/22 where it is shown with purple labeling.)

Potential Long Term Five Waves Up on Bitcoin (Updated 1/18/2021)

 

See monthly chart of Bitcoin below showing a potential five waves up. It has met the minimal requirements for the 5th wave however the 5th wave could go as high as the upper trendline which is currently over 200000. Wave 3 was longer then wave 1 so wave 5 does not need to be shorter then wave 3 and it could also be extended according to the rules. Whatever the wave 5 top is, it should be complete by the 2nd half of 2021 if not sooner.

Once the 5th wave is in, it will be followed by a multi-year and potentially deep bear market that could go near or below the wave 2 low in January/2015 around 153 in a worst case scenario. 

Update:

If considering the wave lengths on a percent basis, wave 1 is the longest wave. With wave 3 being shorter then wave 1, that would mean that wave 5 must be shorter then wave 3. Wave 3 was 11960% long so wave 3 must be shorter. The calculated maximum length for wave 5 is 1,189,380 if measured from September/2020 or 475310 if measured from the March/2020 low. 

The upper trendline is now around 250000 and will rise to be close to 500000 in early 2022 so that may be an argument for the 475000 max target. If that maximum price is achieved it could be as late as the first half of 2022 before wave 5 is complete.

Calculations:

120.6 x 9862.19(Sep/2020 low) = 1,189,380

120.6 x 3941.21(Mar/2020 low) = 475,310

(the wave 3 length of 11960% equates to a multiplying factor of 120.6)   

Chart Update:

Additional pricing data has been found and is shown in the 2nd chart below. This additional data does not change the wave counts. The 1st chart is a monthly chart and the 2nd one is a quarterly chart.