Dow Making Fifth Wave Top? Plus New Wave Count - 3/14/10

The Dow appears to be forming an ending diagonal fifth wave up from the 3/9/09 low. According to Elliott Wave rules, that is the only possible count since ending diagonals only occur in the fifth wave or C wave position. That would be followed by a correction larger than any correction since that 2009 low. See chart below for new wave count.

Wave three, which cannot be the shortest wave, was 426 points, so wave five must be less then that. 426 plus the wave four low of 10508 gives 10934 as the max high for wave five. However it only has to go one tick above the January high to be a valid fifth wave.

Timewise, the fifth wave should complete by the middle or end of this week. Tuesday is the Fed meeting, so that may be the most likely day for a top.

Nine month chart of Dow Ultra ETF, symbol DDM (click to enlarge)