Long-term Count for Gold, posted 1/22/26

 

1/22/26: Above is my long-term count for gold from the 1905 low.  In golds 12-decade yearly chart, I am counting wave 1 as ending in 1934, wave 2 in 1949, wave 3 in 1980 and wave 4 in 1999. The wave 1 length was 29 years and the wave 3 length was two years longer at 31 years. If wave 5 is two years longer than wave 3 that equates to 33 years in 2032. 33 years is just one year below Fibonacci number 34 and which occurs in 2033. Based on those observations and in relation to the long term upper parallel channel line that gives the following upper price targets for gold: 2028  - 23300, 2029 – 24600, 2030 – 26540, 2031 – 28600, 2033 – 33200, 2034 – 35800. That 2028 to 2034 time span looks like the most reasonable period for wave 5 to finish out and with a price target of 23300 to 35800.

S&P 500 Wave 2 Correction From Recent Highs. Updated 7/16/25 and 12/9/25.

 

The S&P 500 has most likely started the Wave 2 Correction and appears to have seen the start with the  12/6/24 and 1/24/25 double top that was tested on Friday: If wave 2 is more of a drawn out time correction then it should be a fairly mild price correction as was stated in the September tweet, perhaps 1/3 of wave 1(yellow arrow on chart), and it may last through much of 2025. Otherwise a shorter term wave 2 may only last up to about 3-4 months and correct up to about 50% to 62% of wave 1(orange arrow) up from the October/2022 low. Either way, my view is that the low of wave 2 is in sight in 2025. I'll be watching for any indications that this outlook is wrong. Update 7/16/25: As has been seen wave 2 ended at the early April lows. S&P 500 may be near the high of the year but it may not be the high of wave 3 - it may be just a correction along the way. Update 12/09/25: The correction along the way came from a higher level in September to November and was mild as expected. Another move up to higher highs in early 2026 could complete 5 waves up from 2009. A topping process could also develop into 2027 or early 2028. That process could produce limited new highs. A parabolic or blowoff top I think would be a lower probability. Either way I will be avoiding this market.

S&P 500 long term trendline within reach

The SP500 strength may indicate that it wants to reach the 11 decade trendline(red dotted line) sooner rather than later instead of later rather than sooner. The gold arrows show possible paths for each count. It is also possible that both wave 1 of 5 and wave 5 of 5 hit that trendline.

 

Stock Market Update 6/4/23, Updated 8/19/23, 3/11/24

 

Biweekly chart of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF as of 6/4/23. The October/2022 stock market low should be the final low and the current market is showing signs of wanting to melt up. I would not be surprised to see a test of the all-time highs sooner rather than later... Possibly even July to September. The blue line shows a possible track of my favored count based on estimated wave relationships. Primary wave 1 of cycle wave 5 is shown as a surmised high around August. Update, 8/19/23: The recent decline has not changed my view...still looking for the January/2022 high to be reached or exceeded by the end of 2023 or January/2024. Update 3/11/24: The major US stock indexes look to be at or near the 2024 highs with a possible secondary high by mid-year. The Dow Industrials peaked on 2/26/24.

Ethereum Wave Five

 

A monthly chart of Ethereum showing my favored count. This count is showing a five wave leading diagonal with a possible trajectory for the 5th wave. A lesser possibility in my view is that the above labeled wave 3 is just waves one through three of an impulsive wave 3 (not shown). 

Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave pattern to the downside

The TLT etf which tracks the Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave expanding diagonal pattern to the downside on the monthly charts as shown by the blue labeling. It has a current dividend yield of 1.90%.

The 5th wave has had a run down close to the lower trendline but has not reached it. 5th waves in an expanding diagonal usually end before hitting that trendline so the 5th wave may be complete or very close to complete.

With that completed 5th wave count, if it is making a zigzag, wave b has an average retracement of wave a of 58% which is at 149.8. The range of that average retracement is within 20% which equates to 136-164. The 58% retracement level is shown on the chart below at letter b on the yellow labeling. The green trendline looks like a good place to put a price target and that trendline reaches the 58% retracement level around January of 2028. It hits the 136 level around January/2025 and the 164 level around January/2031. That makes for a six year time span, 2025-2031 to watch for that trendline to be reached by wave b.

Quarterly chart of iShares 20+ year treasury bond etf(TLT). Click to enlarge.

Eli Lilly Cycle Wave 3

LLY is in primary wave 3 of cycle wave 3 on the monthly chart. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave although the below chart shows a shorter wave 3 projection. This is shown below with wave 3 topping around 380 with the current price near 315.

Eli Lilly monthly chart. Primary count is orange labeling. Cycle count is blue labeling. Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin Diagonal 5th Wave Still in Progress - New Count

The move last week below the June/2021 low has changed the wave count for Bitcoin. I am still counting it as an ending diagonal as shown in prior posts, but it is now a larger diagonal formation. The move down from the Nov/2021 high is wave 2 of the larger diagonal. With this count, there could still be another move down below the May 12th low but it is not a requirement. 

Bi-monthly chart of Bitcoin showing updated count (orange labeling). Original diagonal 5th wave count is shown with purple labeling (updated in 2/6/22 post & originally given in this blog's Aug/2021 post). Long term count from 2010 is shown with blue labeling (long term count was originally given on this blog in January of 2021) . Click to enlarge.

LUV Wave Five

The bimonthly chart of Southwest Airlines (LUV) is showing a five wave impulse since 2009. Wave four bottomed in 2020 and wave 3 of wave five is currently in force most likely. The least bullish wave five possibility would be a contracting diagonal which is shown in the blue labeling in the chart below as would be seen if a standard contracting diagonal plays out with minimal length waves 3 and 5 (circled blue labeling). An impulse or expanding diagonal would be the more bullish possibilities and could go a lot higher.

Bimonthly chart of LUV. Blue labeling shows the
 contracting diagonal possibility for wave five.

Silica Holdings Wave 5

Silica Holdings(SLCA) wave count is indicating that wave 5 on the weekly chart is now in progress. There is a trendline in the 35-40 area that is a good target price. 

Weekly chart of SLCA. Blue labeling shows wave count & wave 5 price target area.

Bullish Counts on the DBC Commodities ETF

There are multiple ways for bullish counts on the DBC commodities ETF bi-weekly chart. One of these would place the wave 2 low at last November's low with wave 3 now in progress. 

The least bullish count is shown below with wave 1 topping on March 8th. Wave 2 would probably bottom later in 2022 perhaps at wave 4 of one lower degree shown by the aqua horizontal line. Wave 3 would then go to significantly higher levels from that low.

Bi-weekly chart of DBC commodities ETF (symbol DBC)

Centerra Gold is in a long term wave 3

Centerra Gold (CGAU) is in a long-term wave 3 as I see it. A seven year wave 1 ended in 2020 followed by a 13 month wave 2. If wave 3 is as long as wave 1, wave 3 would reach 35.68. Wave 3 is usually longer then wave 1 but it can be shorter. See chart below.

 

Bi-monthly chart of Centerra Gold showing long term counts.

Bitcoin 5th Wave Now in Progress

I am counting wave 4 as completed on Bitcoin at the January low. That leaves the 5th and final wave of the diagonal 5th wave before a potentially long and/or deep bear market. It would complete the wave count from the 2010 low. The orange labeling on the chart below shows the ending diagonal 5th wave count. The blue labeling is the count from the 2010 low.

Notice 3/30/22: The ending diagonal count (orange labeling) was originally given 6 months ago on this blog on the 8/5/21 post. The long-term count (blue labeling) was originally given 13 months ago in January of 2021.

The aforementioned analysis and counts were original research by this blogs author.

Any mention or use of these blog posts contents should give attribution to this blog.  

(Please note that the original posted chart was accidently deleted on 5/14/22. This original 5th wave count can be seen on the latest Bitcoin post of 5/14/22 where it is shown with purple labeling.)

S&P 500 Wave Four Appears to have Completed Last Week *Updated 2/27/22

I am counting last week's low on the S&P500 as wave 4 from the 2020 low. That leaves wave 5 to be completed in 2022. 

My count on wave 1 has changed to have ended in August/2020. With that count wave 1 lasted five months and if wave 5 is equal to wave 1 it would end around mid-year.

Wave 5 many times completes when hitting a line drawn from the end of wave 3 that is parallel to a line drawn through the bottoms of wave 2 and wave 4. Those are the purple lines on the chart below. That upper channel line intersects a long-term trend line around July near 5400(not shown). That seems like a logical point to put a maximum target for wave 5. As for a minimum target for wave 5, the guidelines say that wave 5 sometimes does not go above wave 3 but I have never seen that happen. From my experience wave 5 many times travels about 1 1/2 times the width of wave 4 but as far as I am concerned it only has to tick above the wave 3 high and that will be my minimum target. 

I tend to prefer the maximum target for wave 5 around the middle of 2022 but will be on the lookout for it to touch that upper purple line before then. A faster rising wave 5 would reach it before mid 2022 while a slower rising wave 5 may not reach it until late 2022 or 2023. 

Monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(orange) and wave 3 channel lines (purple).   

       

2/27 Update:

Wave 4 has expanded with the lower low last week. This does not change the outlook. Mid-year still looks like a logical time for wave 5 to reach the upper purple channel line. The wave 4 lower low does however decrease the ascent rate of the wave 3 channel lines. That will lower the mid-year max target price from about 5400 to under 5300. See updated chart below:

Updated monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(blue) and
wave 3 channel lines (purple). Click to enlarge.

Potential Five Waves Up on Nasdaq Composite index UPDATED 7/7/21

 (updated 7/7/21 - see bottom of post)

The Nasdaq Composite index potentially completed five waves up at last weeks high. 

An alternate count would allow one more 5th wave up above last weeks high in the coming days or weeks.

A decline from last weeks high could drop .382 which would be just above the September/2020 low. This is shown by the top orange line on the below chart.  Another likely support area is at the .50 retracement which is above the middle of wave one up from the March/2020 low(lower orange line).

Weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite index. The .382 and .50 possible support areas for the correction down are show by the orange lines(click to enlarge).

Update 7/7/21:

The alternate count from the 5/6 post is now the best count. That indicates that it is now in a higher level 5th wave. The 7/2 Russell 2000 post stated that the Russell 2000 fifth wave high may occur around August so that may apply to the other indexes as well including the Nasdaq Composite.

 

Weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite Index (click to enlarge)

Potential Long Term Five Waves Up on Bitcoin (Updated 1/18/2021)

 

See monthly chart of Bitcoin below showing a potential five waves up. It has met the minimal requirements for the 5th wave however the 5th wave could go as high as the upper trendline which is currently over 200000. Wave 3 was longer then wave 1 so wave 5 does not need to be shorter then wave 3 and it could also be extended according to the rules. Whatever the wave 5 top is, it should be complete by the 2nd half of 2021 if not sooner.

Once the 5th wave is in, it will be followed by a multi-year and potentially deep bear market that could go near or below the wave 2 low in January/2015 around 153 in a worst case scenario. 

Update:

If considering the wave lengths on a percent basis, wave 1 is the longest wave. With wave 3 being shorter then wave 1, that would mean that wave 5 must be shorter then wave 3. Wave 3 was 11960% long so wave 3 must be shorter. The calculated maximum length for wave 5 is 1,189,380 if measured from September/2020 or 475310 if measured from the March/2020 low. 

The upper trendline is now around 250000 and will rise to be close to 500000 in early 2022 so that may be an argument for the 475000 max target. If that maximum price is achieved it could be as late as the first half of 2022 before wave 5 is complete.

Calculations:

120.6 x 9862.19(Sep/2020 low) = 1,189,380

120.6 x 3941.21(Mar/2020 low) = 475,310

(the wave 3 length of 11960% equates to a multiplying factor of 120.6)   

Chart Update:

Additional pricing data has been found and is shown in the 2nd chart below. This additional data does not change the wave counts. The 1st chart is a monthly chart and the 2nd one is a quarterly chart.

Stock Market Top is in Site (Updated 12/27/20: Chart Added)

Wave Commentary For Stocks:

(For chart update see bottom of this post)

Review

• The last post in May suggested that the February/2020 top would be tested or exceeded. That high was exceeded in August and the market is continuing to go higher as of this writing.
• It was suggested previously that the B Wave of a flat or triangle was in progress from the March low. That has been updated - see below.
• It was anticipated that the March low would be the low of the year. That was correct. 

Wave Counts and Structure

• The market as shown by the S&P500, may be forming a diagonal five wave structure from the March/2020 low. That appears now to be a better count rather then the B wave of a flat or triangle as described previously. They have not been ruled out however.     
• If a diagonal five wave structure is the correct count, it is not clear if it would be a leading or an ending diagonal, however I am leaning toward the more bullish view at this time. A leading diagonal would be much more bullish then an ending diagonal which in a worst case scenerio could be the end of the entire move up from March/2009.

Wave and Cyclical Outlook

• I have spotted a longer term sub cycle that has a peak in the early Spring. It has a tendency to bring tops so that syncs well with this outlook. 
• There are no more bullish cycles this year so if a top is made around March it could be the high for the year.

Weekly chart of S&P500 showing projected wave count as described 
in above commentary. Wave 5 top is projected around March/2021 as shown.
(click to enlarge)

Primary Wave 4 expansion

Primary Wave 4 of Cycle Wave 1 looks to have expanded and may soon be complete. This was the alternate possibility given at the April update. The wave counts have met the minimum requirements. If not it may be complete by mid January/2019 although this week looks more likely due to the bearish sentiment. Primary Wave 5 would then be upcoming which would take the market above the September high and possibly a lot higher. The 3rd year of the election cycle is the strongest with an average gain of 17%. That would agree with a strong Primary Wave 5 outlook.

A strong weekly close below the April/2018 low may cancel that count and may indicate that Primary Wave 5 ended at the October/2018 top. That would portend that Cycle Wave 2 is in progress which would be the largest correction since the 2007-2009 period.

The bearish Cycle Wave 2 scenario would apply mainly with a weekly close below the April/2018 low that occurs after mid to late January/2019. A close below the April low until then could still be part of Primary Wave 4.

Dow monthly chart. Click to enlarge.

Two bullish possibilities for the US stock market, Updated 6/24/22 & 6/25/22

The correction since January has brought forth a new wave count possibility for the SPX index. The original cycle wave 4 count is still valid. The extent of the correction has introduced the possibility that a larger degree wave 4 has formed instead (see note on side panel). 

Based on other indicators I study as well as EW, if the original cycle wave 4 count is still in force, then cycle wave 5 may be sharper in nature and could top within the next several months or by eoy 2022. Otherwise, if the supercycle degree wave 4 is in force, wave 5 may be more gradual and may not top until 2023-2024. With that count it would also be possible that supercycle wave 4 is not over as wave 4's tend to be sideways in nature. With that then the most recent May 20th low could be wave A of supercycle wave 4 followed be multiple waves which form that sideways count over a similar or shorter time scale. 

In any of the above scenarios, I believe the low of either wave 4 possibility has been made. Any drop below that low should be mild or brief. 

Update 6/24/22: 

The cycle degree wave 4 count as given previously is not looking like a likely resolution which now makes the supercycle degree wave 4 the best count. While the S&P500 cycle wave 4 has not overlapped with cycle wave 2, that did occur late last week on the CRSP US Total Market Index which is a main reason for the above change. 

This does not change the supercycle degree wave 4 comments as given in the original 6/8/22 post shown above.

A lessor possibility is that the move up from the 2020 low to the 2022 high is a supercycle degree wave 5 (instead of sd wave 3). If so, It could be cd wave 1 of sd wave 5 and it may form an ending diagonal pattern with overlapping waves that count better as 3's rather than 5's. That type of formation would also be possible if sd wave 4 ended at the recent low.

Update 6/25/22:

As mentioned above, sd wave 5 could form an ending diagonal EW pattern. With that the initial cd wave 1 is the strongest and fastest wave if it is contracting - contracting is more common than expanding. This is shown in the 2nd chart below.

Monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing cycle degree wave count (purple labeling) and supercycle degree count (orange labeling). Click to enlarge.

Update 6/25/22: Bi-monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing supercycle degree wave 5 as a contracting diagonal (blue labeling).