Sunday, August 30, 2009

Stocks - Ending diagonal trangle? - 8/30/09


Multiple technical indicators have given "negative technical signs".
Specifically, the McClellan oscilator gave a sell signal on Friday. We also had negative divergence as the SP500 made a new high on Friday but not the Dow.

This may indicate a wave 4 down move this week that may not bottom until Thursday or Friday. That would then be followed by a wave 5 up move to a slight new high the following week above last weeks high. Friday the 11th or early the following week would be the target date for the wave 5 high. If that is the correct outlook, wave 5 would be the top of an ending diagonal trangle in the wave (C) position. This is a bearish pattern that is often followed by a fast move down toward the start of the triangle at the July 8th low. Resistance for a wave 5 top is at 1049 and 1063 on the S&P500. Updated wave count is shown below on the SPY etf. Click image to enlarge.