Stock Market Update

The strong move up mentioned on March 1st retraced about 40% of the prior move down instead of the 70% mentioned. It was also mentioned that a strong move down below the prior 2/28 low may invalidate the outlook. That happened one week later however much of the prior commentary concerning the wave X favored count and thereafter is still valid even with the severe decline that followed the March 4th closing high.

The drop below the beginning of wave X of December/2018 does not invalidate any of the three possibilities given for the current correction pattern. This current pattern can still be a zigzag, flat or triangle and it could last up to several months or until sometime in 2021. The March 23rd low may be the price low of the correction but if not, I would be looking for the 2020 low by mid-year.

The wave one count that was referred to last time as another possibility is no longer valid since the December/2018 low was taken out.

Lastly, the severity of this recent decline gives rise to a new count. Since the December/2018 low was taken out, it could indicate that the entire wave one move up from the March/2009 low to the 2018 high is complete and the market is now in a wave two. In a worst case scenario wave two's can retrace up to 80% of wave one but usually it is less then that. With this count, I think the low would be sometime in 2021. The December/2018 to February/2020 up move counts best as a wave X and not as a five wave structure so this count seems unlikely.

Bitcoin

Less bullish count(appears to be most likely outlook): 

Current up wave: wave B of a possible flat or triangle (Feb/2020 high to Mar/2020 low is wave A)
Projection arrow on chart - green (see chart below) 


More bullish count(appears to be less likely outlook): 

Current up wave: wave 3 from the Mar/2020 low (Jun/2019 high to Mar/2020 low is wave 2)
Projection arrow on chart - yellow (see chart below) 


A strong move below the March low will invalidate both of these counts.

Bitcoin weekly chart with current projection arrows shown.