Stocks, Quick Update - 3/9/10

It's now possible to count five waves up from the 2/25 and 2/5 lows. This may be a good place to take profits.

Update - 3/07/10

Stocks
Last weeks stock update was pretty much 100% accurate as this initial surge has taken out the previous week high but has not gone beyond the January high except for the Nasdaq. The Dow and S&P may soon follow the Nasdaq. If that happens within the next two weeks, there is some concern that the markets are completing five waves up from the March/2009 low, as there is a strong cycle that is due in that time frame that could bring a top. All it takes is a one tick move above the January high in both indixes for that to be possibility. Beyond there the next price targets are Dow 11010 and 11060.

However right now the technicals and price action are strong, so the bias is that this rally is part of a larger wave up. So the analysis from 2/19 is still the best outlook:

"A mild correction may form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom followed by a rally above the January high. If so, that rally could be quite strong and last possibly into late Spring or Summer. That could indicate the original bullish wave three of three count(or wave five) from the March/09 low was the correct wave count. The wave X of (X) of [4] count shown last time, could also be valid in that scenario. It all depends on how the wave structure develops."

Gold
Per the 2/28 Gold update, GLD has gone above the February high to confirm the inverse head and shoulders low is in. The initial price targets remain at 113 and 116.