Probable Short Term Top in Stocks - 10/16/09

It appears stocks made a short term top yesterday, with the s&p 500 topping one point above the 1091-1095 price range given in previous posts. That outlook may be negated with a close above yesterdays high. The move may go down to test the early October low in the next two weeks.

Gold/GLD Wave Count, Sugar/SGG - 10/11/09

Gold / GLD

See chart below for current GLD wave count. Wave 3 is currently in progress, to be followed by waves 4 and 5. Since wave 3 has already reached 104.15, the 105.5 target from the end of the triangle at the end of August should be easily surpassed before wave 5 completes, and possibly before wave 3 completes.
Chart: SPDR Gold Trust six month chart, click to enlarge


Sugar / SGG

Sugar appears to be at or near the completion of a zigzag from the late August high with an initial target near the late September high. This upmove can be played with the iPath sugar etf, symbol SGG.

Stocks at or Near Short Term Top? - 10/11/09

Last weeks post called for stocks to move up to test the trendline connecting the September 23rd and 29th highs, with a test of the 9/23 high on a close above the trendline. That test of the trendline occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday with a close above it on Thursday. The market is now testing the September highs.

It looks like the most likely outcome of this test is for an early week top between Fridays high and the September high price or maybe slightly higher as the current swing cycle time band of 10/7 - 10/12 ends Monday. The early week high might be tested toward the end of the week. A close above the 9/23 top would probably be followed by a move up to the 1091 to 1095 fib resistance zone on the s&p 500.