Wave Counts - 7/29/10

Below is a six month chart of the Dow showing the wave counts. It is now looking like the Dow made its high this morning without reaching the .62 retracement given yesterday. Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate Wave (B) Ending? - 7/28/10

Minor wave C up from the early July low is near completion or may have completed at Tuesdays high. Minor wave C will complete a zigzag up on the Dow from that low. I suspect minor wave C is also the end of intermediate wave (B) up from the late May low. The 62% retracement of the move down into the July low from the April high is at Dow 10615. That is the best target price for the top of wave C(if Tuesday was not the top). A move much above that level next week may negate this outlook.

The next wave down from the wave (B) top has the potential to go significantly below the July low. If that happens the price targets for an intermediate wave (C) low are 8900 and 8300. Those are the 50% and 62% retracements of the bull move up from the March 2009 bottom. That low may complete primary wave [B] down from the April/2010 high.

Wave C's in time are usually between .62 of wave A and 1.62 of wave B. That calculation points to the period between August 16th and November 11th for the low of primary wave [B]. In that period there is a timing cluster due in early to mid September which is the most likely time for the wave [B] low to occur. The next most likely time is mid October when a weaker timing cluster is due. I will be posting charts showing the wave counts.