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The last Bitcoin update in May counted the long term(supercycle) wave four as ending at the March/2020 low. In the January update the long term wave four low was counted as ending at the September/2020 low. It is unclear which is the correct count as either one is valid.
If Sep/2020 was the multi-year wave four low, then wave five may have completed at the Apr/2021 top. If so, that would indicate that a long term bear market is now in effect. However supercycle wave five may also not yet be complete and may only have completed wave one and wave two as wave one does not count best as an impulse. With that count, wave two may have ended at the June/2021 low. Wave three would now be in effect and to be followed by wave four and wave five of the long term wave five over the coming months. I would also be looking for the possibility that supercycle wave five is forming an ending diagonal which would be indicated by waves that form zigzags rather then impulses and wave four would overlap with wave two.
Update 8/5/21: The wave one that ended in Apr/2021 may count best as a zigzag which could suggest that the supercycle wave five is in fact forming an ending diagonal. That would also suggest that supercycle wave 5 did not end at the Apr/2021 top as mentioned above.
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Update 8/5/21: Monthly bitcoin chart showing potential supercycle wave 5 as an ending diagonal(orange labeling) |
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