Stocks - 9/16/09

As with gold, the upcoming cycle reversal zone for stocks(9/18 to 9/22) appears to be inverting into a high instead of a low. Wavecount is unclear. Resistance is at 1069-1075 and 1088-1095 on the s&p500.

Gold Update - 9/15/09

Gold today gave a technical buy signal. This may bring a new high on Wednesday above last Fridays high. That may indicate that the time cycle reversal zone of 9/18 to 9/22 will invert and bring a high instead of a low.

Stocks, T-Bonds, Gold - 9/13/09

Stocks

Stocks advanced last week into Friday as forecast and are now encountering the mid September "time cycle confluence" area first noticed/mentioned here on 8/17/09. The outlook for an ending diagonal triangle still looks intact as the s&p500 made an apparant fifth wave high just under a 1049 fibonacci reistance point. If this is the correct outlook, this coming week should be a down week with a possible swing low around Friday or early the following week as the next minor time cycle is 9/20 to 9/22. Initial downside support is at 1020 and 996 on the s&p with a possible eventual bottom near the July low.

However, the Dow Industrials did not make a fifth wave high last week. This may indicate an intraday upmove on Monday that takes the Dow to a slight new high to complete wave five. This would probably take the s&p500 to the 1049-1055 area as there is another fib resistance point at 1054.
Correction, 9/14/09 9:20 am ct: Actually it was the DIA etf that did not make a higher 5th wave high last week, not the Dow Industrials index, so the last paragraph can probably be ignored as the count on the actual index is more important then the etf.

Treasury Bonds

Bonds may have completed a zigzag high into fibonacci resistance on Friday. In addition, there is a minor treasury bond time cycle that peaked this weekend. This should bring a down week for bonds, possibly into 9/20 to 9/23 when there is a minor time cycle due. Since the CPI and PPI inflation numbers come out this week this could indicate an uptick in inflation will be shown by the reports. It can be played with the inverse T-Bond etf's TBT or TMV(triple beta). The initial upside price target for these etf's is near the August high with an eventual move up toward the June high or higher.

Chart: TBT etf, 6 month chart (click to enlarge)
White horizontal line is initial target


Gold

Gold is in a time cycle reversal area from the 12th to the 15th. It is possible to count five waves up but it may extend a little higher on Monday before reversing. A decline from that top could extend down into the next time cycle reversal area of 9/18 to 9/22.