Update - 2/19/10

Stocks have moved up and are testing the 50 day moving average as indicated earlier this week. This may stall the advance and bring at least a short term correction into the end of the month. A mild correction may form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom followed by a rally above the January high. If so, that rally could be quite strong and last possibly into late Spring or Summer. That could indicate the original bullish wave three of three count(or wave five) from the March/09 low was the correct wave count. The wave X of (X) of [4] count shown last time, could also be valid in that scenario. It all depends on how the wave structure develops.

The wave X of (X) of [4] count also would allow for a correction below the early February low. That scenario may bring a drop into an early or mid March low. The two bearish counts shown last time could also still be valid, but the bullish scenarios seem more likely as the technicals have improved rapidly.

GLD

The gold chart is looking more bullish, but short term may correct for 1-3 weeks. More detail will be provided on this later.