Two bullish possibilities for the US stock market, Updated 6/24/22 & 6/25/22

The correction since January has brought forth a new wave count possibility for the SPX index. The original cycle wave 4 count is still valid. The extent of the correction has introduced the possibility that a larger degree wave 4 has formed instead (see note on side panel). 

Based on other indicators I study as well as EW, if the original cycle wave 4 count is still in force, then cycle wave 5 may be sharper in nature and could top within the next several months or by eoy 2022. Otherwise, if the supercycle degree wave 4 is in force, wave 5 may be more gradual and may not top until 2023-2024. With that count it would also be possible that supercycle wave 4 is not over as wave 4's tend to be sideways in nature. With that then the most recent May 20th low could be wave A of supercycle wave 4 followed be multiple waves which form that sideways count over a similar or shorter time scale. 

In any of the above scenarios, I believe the low of either wave 4 possibility has been made. Any drop below that low should be mild or brief. 

Update 6/24/22: 

The cycle degree wave 4 count as given previously is not looking like a likely resolution which now makes the supercycle degree wave 4 the best count. While the S&P500 cycle wave 4 has not overlapped with cycle wave 2, that did occur late last week on the CRSP US Total Market Index which is a main reason for the above change. 

This does not change the supercycle degree wave 4 comments as given in the original 6/8/22 post shown above.

A lessor possibility is that the move up from the 2020 low to the 2022 high is a supercycle degree wave 5 (instead of sd wave 3). If so, It could be cd wave 1 of sd wave 5 and it may form an ending diagonal pattern with overlapping waves that count better as 3's rather than 5's. That type of formation would also be possible if sd wave 4 ended at the recent low.

Update 6/25/22:

As mentioned above, sd wave 5 could form an ending diagonal EW pattern. With that the initial cd wave 1 is the strongest and fastest wave if it is contracting - contracting is more common than expanding. This is shown in the 2nd chart below.

Monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing cycle degree wave count (purple labeling) and supercycle degree count (orange labeling). Click to enlarge.

Update 6/25/22: Bi-monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing supercycle degree wave 5 as a contracting diagonal (blue labeling).