Wave Counts Indicate Top Possible by Spring/2013 for S&P500

Below is a monthly chart of the S&P500 showing the updated wave counts. We are currently in primary wave C of cycle wave X from the March/2009 low. Primary wave C began at the October/2011 low and is forming an ending diagonal. Major wave 4 of primary wave C ended at the recent low on November 15th. Major wave 5 of primary wave C is now in progress and should top in the 1st half of 2013 (most likely by the spring, especially February to April). The ending price of major wave 5 should be near the upper teal trendline and above the September/2012 top.

                                 Monthly chart of S&P500, click to enlarge

Two bullish possibilities for the US stock market, Updated 6/24/22 & 6/25/22

The correction since January has brought forth a new wave count possibility for the SPX index. The original cycle wave 4 count is still valid. The extent of the correction has introduced the possibility that a larger degree wave 4 has formed instead (see note on side panel). 

Based on other indicators I study as well as EW, if the original cycle wave 4 count is still in force, then cycle wave 5 may be sharper in nature and could top within the next several months or by eoy 2022. Otherwise, if the supercycle degree wave 4 is in force, wave 5 may be more gradual and may not top until 2023-2024. With that count it would also be possible that supercycle wave 4 is not over as wave 4's tend to be sideways in nature. With that then the most recent May 20th low could be wave A of supercycle wave 4 followed be multiple waves which form that sideways count over a similar or shorter time scale. 

In any of the above scenarios, I believe the low of either wave 4 possibility has been made. Any drop below that low should be mild or brief. 

Update 6/24/22: 

The cycle degree wave 4 count as given previously is not looking like a likely resolution which now makes the supercycle degree wave 4 the best count. While the S&P500 cycle wave 4 has not overlapped with cycle wave 2, that did occur late last week on the CRSP US Total Market Index which is a main reason for the above change. 

This does not change the supercycle degree wave 4 comments as given in the original 6/8/22 post shown above.

A lessor possibility is that the move up from the 2020 low to the 2022 high is a supercycle degree wave 5 (instead of sd wave 3). If so, It could be cd wave 1 of sd wave 5 and it may form an ending diagonal pattern with overlapping waves that count better as 3's rather than 5's. That type of formation would also be possible if sd wave 4 ended at the recent low.

Update 6/25/22:

As mentioned above, sd wave 5 could form an ending diagonal EW pattern. With that the initial cd wave 1 is the strongest and fastest wave if it is contracting - contracting is more common than expanding. This is shown in the 2nd chart below.

Monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing cycle degree wave count (purple labeling) and supercycle degree count (orange labeling). Click to enlarge.

Update 6/25/22: Bi-monthly S&P 500 futures chart showing supercycle degree wave 5 as a contracting diagonal (blue labeling).

S&P500 Update

This is a six month chart of the SP-500. I'm counting the move down from April 2 as a flat(major wave X of primary wave C). This is a potentially good buy point for a 50% or even 100% retracement up(see chart), but as previously stated, we are not out of the woods until late June or mid July when there are negative cycles peaking(that period could now end up being high instead of a low).