Stock Decline Looks Imminent

Many of the indicators are lining up for stocks to make at least a multi-week top sometime between now and mid-January. If so, I will label the move up from the December/2018 low as an X wave as I mentioned a couple of times before. 

There is a smaller chance that stocks are now in a wave 3 from the October/2019 low which would also be ending at any time although the decline would be not as severe with a test of the December low more likely. The wave 3 count could also be more likely then the wave X count to bring a high more toward the end of the timeframe from now to mid-January.   

Even if the wave X count is correct, I don't think there will be a huge price decline from here and would not be surprised to see higher highs later in 2020. The worst case may be a retest of the June/2019 low.

S&P500 Daily Chart (click to enlarge)

Stocks Climbing Higher

See attached chart for revised outlook. Looking for a possible high by late December.

Green arrow is the more bullish view / Red arrow is the more bearish view. It could also turn out to be a hybrid of the two. This is per my take of the technical/cyclical indicators. 

Possible Stock Market Triple Top Forming (update 10/31/19)

The S&P 500 and other indexes may be forming a triple top with the April, July and possible upcoming early September top(see chart below). That formation which is being telegraphed by typical wave pattern relationships and technical/cyclical indicators could possibly be counted as an ending diagonal which would be very bearish. This indicated 3rd swing up from the August 5th low would be about a 7 1/2% rise.

Chart of S&P 500 showing possible upcoming triple top(blue arrow)
 

Update 8/21/2019:

According to the Elliott Wave rules, if a 3rd SP500 top(wave 5) is formed in early September and it goes above the July high(yellow dashed line on attached chart), a leading diagonal OR ending diagonal could be indicated. They can also have different wave structures so that will have to be looked at also.

If a 3rd SP500 top is formed in early September and it stays below the July high, only an ending diagonal could be indicated as leading diagonal rules require that the 5th wave goes above wave 3. This scenario could also possibly be counted as an X wave at the July high.

Although ending diagonals are more common then leading diagonals, I am leaning toward the leading diagonal count which would then be followed by waves 2 through 5 of a possible 5th wave impulse over the coming one to several years.  The ending diagonal count would be very bearish as it could indicate the end of the entire move up from the 2009 low.

S&P 500 (click to enlarge)

Update 8/23/2019:

Today's weak price action reduces the chances that a diagonal is forming and It also increases the likelihood that lower prices will continue for at least several more weeks. It is still possible however but would require a 6% upmove into early September. In any case, indicators show there could be a 1-2 week rebound which may begin within the next 1-3 trading days which could allow for the leading diagonal or right shoulder of a head and shoulders top scenarios to unfold.  If the July high was the top then that would probably be labeled as the top of an X wave. 

Update 9/5/2019:

The leading diagonal wave pattern now appears to be the most likely outcome as originally described on 8/8/19. This would form a triple top with the April, July and anticipated September highs. The end of next week around Friday looks like the most likely time for that to occur. 

Update 9/16/2019:

If last weeks highs hold, none of the major indexes made a new yearly high in September. If a diagonal was formed it can only be an ending diagonal according to the rules. It could also be counted as an X wave at the July top which is what I am leaning toward. The X-wave count can also be identified as a head and shoulders top. All of these counts are bearish and the July high may hold until the end of year at the minimum.

Update 10/04/2019:
Technical and cyclical indicators are showing a possible retest of the September 
high within the next 3-5 weeks. If it goes above the September high that would 
invalidate the ending diagonal count at the September high although the X wave 
count would still be valid. See chart of S&P 500 below.

Chart of S&P 500 index with projection arrow. (click to enlarge)

Update 10/31/19:

Stocks may be on the verge of a multi-week decline as it is possible to get a completed wave count from the October low and as shown by the technical/cyclical indicators. I would not rule out another retest of the October high however. The diagonal count is also not necessarily invalidated yet by the move above the July/September highs.

S&P500 chart with arrow showing possible direction

Bitcoin Initial Coverage - Bullish (Update 10/28/19)

Bitcoin is on track for a test of the all time high around 20,000. I have a projection well beyond that but I will keep it to myself for now. 

Update 8/6/19: See chart below

Weekly bitcoin chart showing next price target(dashed line) Click to enlarge.

Update 10/28/19:

Bitcoin has most likely completed it's correction and now looks poised to test the all time highs around 20000 within the next several months(with corrections and pauses along the way). Even if the correction is not over, the price low of the correction has probably been made.

Stocks Making Double Top?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 look to be making a correction wave double top with the April and current highs. This would be followed by a multi-month stock decline within this ongoing wave 4 correction. See chart below for price projection.

Update 7/21/19: See updated S&P 500 wave projection below.

Chart of  DOW 30 showing price projection

S&P500 updated wave projection 7/21/19

First GLD Target Reached. New Higher Gold Price Target.

GLD reached the target given in the June 5th update. The new price target for GLD is 145.5 to 152. See chart below. In the short term gold is overbought and may have a correction before the gold rally resumes. 

Monthly Chart of GLD Showing Price Target Projection (click to enlarge)

Gold Update

See attached chart for price targets.

GLD Daily chart (click to enlarge)

Gold Near Low?

Gold may be near an intermediate or larger degree low - see orange line on chart below. If it holds above the April low, that would be a triple bottom formation.

Daily Chart of Gold CFD's - click to enlarge

Dow Update Revision - Near Potential High of Year?

This is an update to the prior Dow update on April 14th due to a program bug I discovered this week in one of the main programs I use. After adjusting the data for the invalid program dates the cycles are now shown to be neutral to bearish from now through most of the remainder of the year.

The up move that has been in force since December is indicated to possibly end at any time if not at this weeks highs on Tuesday and Wednesday. If so that would make the move up from the December low an X wave. Mid to late May would be the indicated latest date a top would occur.

Gold Outlook

Gold looks bearish - see chart.

Daily chart gold cfd's, Click to enlarge.

Dow Update

In the last update it was stated that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could have one more wave up. That came to pass as the Dow made a top on April 5th and we are now at an important juncture this coming week. 

The anticipated correction either started on 4/5 or it may start sometime around Easter weekend. If the correction started on 4/5, the iw B correction may form a flat. If it starts later, iw B may be a zigzag.

In any case, the wave counts indicate at least one more rally phase after the next correction(waves iw B & iw C of a zigzag) and the cycles I look at are bullish for most of May so any major top may not occur until after that. Correction (due to a program bug I discovered) : cycles in May are neutral.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (via DIA etf). Click to enlarge.

Potential Five Waves Up

The SP500/Dow are looking toppy here. I can count five waves up from the December low to the 2/25 - 3/4 highs. It's unclear if it's a wave A top or wave 1. I'm leaning toward wave A or it could also be a completed wave X. It is also possible the Dow could have one more wave up to complete the count.

New Blog Name

I am renaming this blog to Waves Blog as of today. That is so there will be no confusion with EWAVES software that is published by Elliot Wave International (discovered after this blog was founded).