S&P 500 Intermediate Wave Four (*Updated 10/11/21)

I am counting this correction as intermediate wave 4 within a larger bull market. If that outlook is correct, the high of the year may have been seen but there could be 1-2 tests of that high over the coming weeks or months which could go a bit above that high. 

The early September high is the top of primary wave 3 as I am counting it. I would now be looking for a multi-week or multi-month wave 4. Wave 5 may then be approximately equal to the length of wave one which tends to be the case when wave 3 is extended. * An alternate possibility is that wave 4 bottomed at the October low. If so wave 5 should complete by the end of the year.  I am not expecting that the anticipated wave 5 to be the top of this bull market. This Elliott Wave outlook is shown graphically on the below bi-weekly chart. The Vanguard S&P500 ETF is used as a proxy for the S&P500 index. A strong move above the September high in the next few months below this months low may negate this outlook.

One of the great things about Elliott Wave is the big picture view it provides so as to help to see when to hold and when the outlook is starting to work against you. No market analysis methodology can predict the market perfectly every time. 

S&P500 index bi-weekly chart as shown by the VOO etf. The primary wave 3 high is shown by the circled 3 in early September. (click to enlarge)

Bitcoin Long Term Waves Four and Five (updated 8/5/21)

The last Bitcoin update in May counted the long term(supercycle) wave four as ending at the March/2020 low. In the January update the long term wave four low was counted as ending at the September/2020 low. It is unclear which is the correct count as either one is valid. 

If Sep/2020 was the multi-year wave four low, then wave five may have completed at the Apr/2021 top. If so, that would indicate that a long term bear market is now in effect.  However supercycle wave five may also not yet be complete and may only have completed wave one and wave two as wave one does not count best as an impulse. With that count, wave two may have ended at the June/2021 low. Wave three would now be in effect and to be followed by wave four and wave five of the long term wave five over the coming months. I would also be looking for the possibility that supercycle wave five is forming an ending diagonal which would be indicated by waves that form zigzags rather then impulses and wave four would overlap with wave two. 

Update 8/5/21: The wave one that ended in Apr/2021 may count best as a zigzag which could suggest that the supercycle wave five is in fact forming an ending diagonal. That would also suggest that supercycle wave 5 did not end at the Apr/2021 top as mentioned above.

Update 8/5/21: Monthly bitcoin chart showing potential supercycle wave 5 as an ending diagonal(orange labeling)

Monthly Bitcoin chart showing a potentially completed wave 5 at the April/2021 high

Wave 4 on Russell 2000 Appears to be Complete - *Updated 8/25/21 & 12/23/21

The wave count as I see it on the Russell 2000 is showing that wave 4 up from the 2020 low has completed and it is now in a wave 5 which may rise up into around August. That wave 5 top could be the high for the year and would be followed by a multi-week or multi-month correction.

Russell 2000 weekly chart as shown by the IWM etf.(click to enlarge)

Update 8/25/21:

Wave 4 extended out till August instead of ending in June. That 2 month delay may extend the end of wave 5 by about 2 months until around October based on often seen wave relationships. See new chart below.

Update 12/23/21:

The Russell 2000 index completed 5 waves up in November. The high was on 11/8/21 which was not long after October as suggested in the last update. 

Wave 2 often bottoms in the area of wave 4 of one lower degree. The chart below shows a typical Elliott correction wave as per the general guidelines. The Russell 2000 does not always move in step with the other major indexes so it does not necessarily mean that the S&P500 has also topped.

Biweekly chart of Russell 2000 index as shown by the IWM etf.

Bitcoin Wave Four May be Complete *Updated 3/1/22

Bitcoin wave four may have completed at yesterday's low. That will be followed by wave five up to above the April high. 

If wave five is equal to wave one from the 2020 low, that would equate to approximately 65600 which is just above the April high. The wave five upper target could be around the upper long term trendline currently near 260000. 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart (click to enlarge)

Updated 3/1/22: I am revising the wave 5 count if counting the long-term wave 4 as ending at the March/2020 low. This revised count places the top of wave 1 at the April/2021 high. Circled wave 5 of 5 most likely would end near the trendline connecting the tops of circled waves 1 and 3 and cannot be longer than wave 3 in a contracting diagonal. See below chart:

    

Updated 3/1/22 count: Bi-weekly chart of Bitcoin showing the revised wave 5 count if counting the wave 4 end from the March/2020 low. This is counting wave 5 as forming an ending diagonal.

Potential Five Waves Up on Nasdaq Composite index UPDATED 7/7/21

 (updated 7/7/21 - see bottom of post)

The Nasdaq Composite index potentially completed five waves up at last weeks high. 

An alternate count would allow one more 5th wave up above last weeks high in the coming days or weeks.

A decline from last weeks high could drop .382 which would be just above the September/2020 low. This is shown by the top orange line on the below chart.  Another likely support area is at the .50 retracement which is above the middle of wave one up from the March/2020 low(lower orange line).

Weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite index. The .382 and .50 possible support areas for the correction down are show by the orange lines(click to enlarge).

Update 7/7/21:

The alternate count from the 5/6 post is now the best count. That indicates that it is now in a higher level 5th wave. The 7/2 Russell 2000 post stated that the Russell 2000 fifth wave high may occur around August so that may apply to the other indexes as well including the Nasdaq Composite.

 

Weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite Index (click to enlarge)

Potential Long Term Five Waves Up on Bitcoin (Updated 1/18/2021)

 

See monthly chart of Bitcoin below showing a potential five waves up. It has met the minimal requirements for the 5th wave however the 5th wave could go as high as the upper trendline which is currently over 200000. Wave 3 was longer then wave 1 so wave 5 does not need to be shorter then wave 3 and it could also be extended according to the rules. Whatever the wave 5 top is, it should be complete by the 2nd half of 2021 if not sooner.

Once the 5th wave is in, it will be followed by a multi-year and potentially deep bear market that could go near or below the wave 2 low in January/2015 around 153 in a worst case scenario. 

Update:

If considering the wave lengths on a percent basis, wave 1 is the longest wave. With wave 3 being shorter then wave 1, that would mean that wave 5 must be shorter then wave 3. Wave 3 was 11960% long so wave 3 must be shorter. The calculated maximum length for wave 5 is 1,189,380 if measured from September/2020 or 475310 if measured from the March/2020 low. 

The upper trendline is now around 250000 and will rise to be close to 500000 in early 2022 so that may be an argument for the 475000 max target. If that maximum price is achieved it could be as late as the first half of 2022 before wave 5 is complete.

Calculations:

120.6 x 9862.19(Sep/2020 low) = 1,189,380

120.6 x 3941.21(Mar/2020 low) = 475,310

(the wave 3 length of 11960% equates to a multiplying factor of 120.6)   

Chart Update:

Additional pricing data has been found and is shown in the 2nd chart below. This additional data does not change the wave counts. The 1st chart is a monthly chart and the 2nd one is a quarterly chart.