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| The S&P 500 has most likely started the Wave 2 Correction and appears to have seen the start with the 12/6/24 and 1/24/25 double top that was tested on Friday: If wave 2 is more of a drawn out time correction then it should be a fairly mild price correction as was stated in the September tweet, perhaps 1/3 of wave 1(yellow arrow on chart), and it may last through much of 2025. Otherwise a shorter term wave 2 may only last up to about 3-4 months and correct up to about 50% to 62% of wave 1(orange arrow) up from the October/2022 low. Either way, my view is that the low of wave 2 is in sight in 2025. I'll be watching for any indications that this outlook is wrong. Update 7/16/25: As has been seen wave 2 ended at the early April lows. S&P 500 may be near the high of the year but it may not be the high of wave 3 - it may be just a correction along the way. Update 12/09/25: The correction along the way came from a higher level in September to November and was mild as expected. Another move up to higher highs in early 2026 could complete 5 waves up from 2009. A topping process could also develop into 2027 or early 2028. That process could produce limited new highs. A parabolic or blowoff top I think would be a lower probability. Either way I will be avoiding this market. |
