Update

S&P 500

Todays action indicates that wave 2 (or wave B) ended with the April 21st low. So we are probably now in wave 3 (or C). As stated previously, I think the strength will continue for several more weeks(as waves 3 thru 5 or wave C complete).

Gold

My blog entry on April 7th identified the initial low for this current upmove. As I stated then, I am looking for a move up toward the February top(98.99 on the GLD etf). The first price target is around 94 on GLD.

Crude Oil

The USO etf is fast approaching my 1st target of 32 as stated in my April 27th blog entry. I think the strength will continue for several more weeks as this current wave completes(probably above 35).

S&P 500 Update

Yesterdays move above the April 17th high on the S&P 500 has invalidated my previous wave count. My updated count moves the wave 5 high to April 13th. The market has been showing good strength which I think will continue for several more weeks as waves 2 thru 5(or B,C) complete. However, we may have made a short term top here as a possible upwave within wave 2 completes.

Crude Oil Low

This is a six month chart of the Crude Oil ETF USO. The April 21st low is a .618 retracement of the A wave up from the February low. Todays sharp selloff looks like a successful retest of that low. The 1st price target is the wave A March high at 32. The April 21st low also forms the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation.

S&P 500 Top?

Below is my count for the S&P 500 showing a possible completed 5 wave formation at Thursdays close. If so, elliott wave rules would call for a move down to at least the start of the triangle(point 4).

Gold Low

Below is a six month chart of the GLD etf. Gold appears to have completed an ABC low from the February top. The point C low is a 50% retracement of the move up from November. This can be traded using GLD or DGP etf's for a move up toward the February top from here.


Stocks

US stocks look like they may be making a top by mid April.

Long Term Counts

Welcome to my blog. Below is my long term elliott wave count on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first one is my primary count and the second one is my alternate count.



This is my primary count. It may imply a multi-year or multi-decade bull market from point C. Point C is the low made on March 6, 2009.



This is my altenate count. It implies a new low below point A after a B wave retracement of wave A. This lower low would probably occur in 2010 or maybe 2011.