S & P 500 Cycles, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 may be getting close to a short term top here cyclicly but the wave structure does not look complete. The cycles mentioned previously for the last half of July may be a high instead of a low. Sideways action is looking more likely the next few weeks or longer as there is a late August cycle that is more likely to be a low. An August low might be an ending C wave of a flat.


Gold

Gold still looks on track for testing the early June high.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

I think the S & P 500 is at or near a low here. The wave counts are shown below for the SPY etf. However cycles could still allow for a lower low by the week of July 20th. I think this upmove can go at least to the 908-922 on the S & P 500 before any new downturn.




Gold

Gold may also be making a C wave (or A of Y) low here. Either count would bring a move up toward the early June high. Cycles may also allow for a lower move down toward the April low by the week of July 27th. The gold stocks etf GDX is a better way to play a gold upmove as it has a clearer pattern and is giving quadruple divergences per my technical indicators at the current low verses the June low.

Gold Update

The gold etf GLD is bouncing off of strong fibonacci support which may continue for at least a couple of more days. I think this bounce is either a B wave within wave C as shown in the first chart or it is a B wave within a wave Y of a double three correction from the February high(shown in 2nd chart).

A wave C would have support at 88.75-89.5, 87.70 or the 84.84 April low. A wave Y would trade generally sideways between the early June high and the mid June low while the structure completes. Wave Y would probably be a triangle or flat.

S&P 500 New Alternate Counts, USO

S&P 500

I have identified two new S&P 500 alternate counts. Of the four counts two indicate higher prices from here, one indicates lower prices and the other indicates a more sideways pattern before another leg up.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil etf USO still looks bullish with a target near 41 or 44. A move below Wednesday's low would probably negate that view.

S&P 500 Alternate Count

I am looking at an S&P 500 alternate count with June 11th being a fifth wave high. Wave two support would be at 888, 845-857 and 811-821.

Stock Market Update

S&P 500

The S&P 500 appears to have completed a bullish cup and handle formation. This may increase the chances of a fifth wave extension, however my current target remains 980-1000. Next resistance past 1000 is at 1018.


NASDAQ Composite

The NASDAQ count shows that we are now in a wave 3 (or C). A wave 3 count may correspond better with a fifth wave extension on the S&P 500. The next price target is 1997 and I would not be surprised to see at least 2200 before waves 3, 4 and 5 complete.