S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 looks like it may be completing a fifth wave up from the early July low. If so it may complete by Friday instead of the Monday date that was mentioned previously. There is another cycle due the middle of next week. That could be a buy point for a move up into mid August. An alternate possibility is for the fifth wave to continue up into the middle of next week.


Gold

GLD and GDX have probably completed a correction. This upmove would be wave c of B of Y(or c of D) for GLD which would bring a move up toward the June high.

Update

S&P 500
The cycle mentioned in previous posts is due Monday that may bring a short term top. However a higher high is looking more likely for mid August as a new cycle has been identified that is more likely to bring a high then a low at that time. A mid August high would then be followed by a decline into the late August cycle mentioned previously. Wave counts are shown below.


Gold
Gold is still on track for a test of the early June high. It may make a short term top along with the S&P 500 Monday but this would likely be a B wave followed by a C wave up that would bring the test of the June high.

S & P 500 Cycles, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 may be getting close to a short term top here cyclicly but the wave structure does not look complete. The cycles mentioned previously for the last half of July may be a high instead of a low. Sideways action is looking more likely the next few weeks or longer as there is a late August cycle that is more likely to be a low. An August low might be an ending C wave of a flat.


Gold

Gold still looks on track for testing the early June high.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

I think the S & P 500 is at or near a low here. The wave counts are shown below for the SPY etf. However cycles could still allow for a lower low by the week of July 20th. I think this upmove can go at least to the 908-922 on the S & P 500 before any new downturn.




Gold

Gold may also be making a C wave (or A of Y) low here. Either count would bring a move up toward the early June high. Cycles may also allow for a lower move down toward the April low by the week of July 27th. The gold stocks etf GDX is a better way to play a gold upmove as it has a clearer pattern and is giving quadruple divergences per my technical indicators at the current low verses the June low.

Gold Update

The gold etf GLD is bouncing off of strong fibonacci support which may continue for at least a couple of more days. I think this bounce is either a B wave within wave C as shown in the first chart or it is a B wave within a wave Y of a double three correction from the February high(shown in 2nd chart).

A wave C would have support at 88.75-89.5, 87.70 or the 84.84 April low. A wave Y would trade generally sideways between the early June high and the mid June low while the structure completes. Wave Y would probably be a triangle or flat.

S&P 500 New Alternate Counts, USO

S&P 500

I have identified two new S&P 500 alternate counts. Of the four counts two indicate higher prices from here, one indicates lower prices and the other indicates a more sideways pattern before another leg up.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil etf USO still looks bullish with a target near 41 or 44. A move below Wednesday's low would probably negate that view.