S & P 500 Wave Count Adjustment

See below for a minor adjustment to the short term S & P 500 Wave Count. The current wave 4 looks most likely to end on Monday. This does not change the outlook for a mid august top as detailed in the last post.

S & P 500, Gold Heading for Mid August Top

S & P 500

The S & P 500 appears to have completed a higher level wave 4 this morning and may now be in the final fifth wave of this upmove. The 50% retracement level of the Oct/07 to Mar/09 downmove is about 1090 plus or minus 30 points. That looks like the most likely price target for a mid August top.

The mid August time cycle high could be at least a multi-week high or maybe even the high for the year. The cycle will probably peak near August 14th or sometime the following week.

Gold

The Gold wave count is still either D or b of Y. Either count would probably top in the same timeframe as stocks given above.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 looks like it may be completing a fifth wave up from the early July low. If so it may complete by Friday instead of the Monday date that was mentioned previously. There is another cycle due the middle of next week. That could be a buy point for a move up into mid August. An alternate possibility is for the fifth wave to continue up into the middle of next week.


Gold

GLD and GDX have probably completed a correction. This upmove would be wave c of B of Y(or c of D) for GLD which would bring a move up toward the June high.

Update

S&P 500
The cycle mentioned in previous posts is due Monday that may bring a short term top. However a higher high is looking more likely for mid August as a new cycle has been identified that is more likely to bring a high then a low at that time. A mid August high would then be followed by a decline into the late August cycle mentioned previously. Wave counts are shown below.


Gold
Gold is still on track for a test of the early June high. It may make a short term top along with the S&P 500 Monday but this would likely be a B wave followed by a C wave up that would bring the test of the June high.

S & P 500 Cycles, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 may be getting close to a short term top here cyclicly but the wave structure does not look complete. The cycles mentioned previously for the last half of July may be a high instead of a low. Sideways action is looking more likely the next few weeks or longer as there is a late August cycle that is more likely to be a low. An August low might be an ending C wave of a flat.


Gold

Gold still looks on track for testing the early June high.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

I think the S & P 500 is at or near a low here. The wave counts are shown below for the SPY etf. However cycles could still allow for a lower low by the week of July 20th. I think this upmove can go at least to the 908-922 on the S & P 500 before any new downturn.




Gold

Gold may also be making a C wave (or A of Y) low here. Either count would bring a move up toward the early June high. Cycles may also allow for a lower move down toward the April low by the week of July 27th. The gold stocks etf GDX is a better way to play a gold upmove as it has a clearer pattern and is giving quadruple divergences per my technical indicators at the current low verses the June low.