Stocks - 9/16/09

As with gold, the upcoming cycle reversal zone for stocks(9/18 to 9/22) appears to be inverting into a high instead of a low. Wavecount is unclear. Resistance is at 1069-1075 and 1088-1095 on the s&p500.

Gold Update - 9/15/09

Gold today gave a technical buy signal. This may bring a new high on Wednesday above last Fridays high. That may indicate that the time cycle reversal zone of 9/18 to 9/22 will invert and bring a high instead of a low.

Stocks, T-Bonds, Gold - 9/13/09

Stocks

Stocks advanced last week into Friday as forecast and are now encountering the mid September "time cycle confluence" area first noticed/mentioned here on 8/17/09. The outlook for an ending diagonal triangle still looks intact as the s&p500 made an apparant fifth wave high just under a 1049 fibonacci reistance point. If this is the correct outlook, this coming week should be a down week with a possible swing low around Friday or early the following week as the next minor time cycle is 9/20 to 9/22. Initial downside support is at 1020 and 996 on the s&p with a possible eventual bottom near the July low.

However, the Dow Industrials did not make a fifth wave high last week. This may indicate an intraday upmove on Monday that takes the Dow to a slight new high to complete wave five. This would probably take the s&p500 to the 1049-1055 area as there is another fib resistance point at 1054.
Correction, 9/14/09 9:20 am ct: Actually it was the DIA etf that did not make a higher 5th wave high last week, not the Dow Industrials index, so the last paragraph can probably be ignored as the count on the actual index is more important then the etf.

Treasury Bonds

Bonds may have completed a zigzag high into fibonacci resistance on Friday. In addition, there is a minor treasury bond time cycle that peaked this weekend. This should bring a down week for bonds, possibly into 9/20 to 9/23 when there is a minor time cycle due. Since the CPI and PPI inflation numbers come out this week this could indicate an uptick in inflation will be shown by the reports. It can be played with the inverse T-Bond etf's TBT or TMV(triple beta). The initial upside price target for these etf's is near the August high with an eventual move up toward the June high or higher.

Chart: TBT etf, 6 month chart (click to enlarge)
White horizontal line is initial target


Gold

Gold is in a time cycle reversal area from the 12th to the 15th. It is possible to count five waves up but it may extend a little higher on Monday before reversing. A decline from that top could extend down into the next time cycle reversal area of 9/18 to 9/22.

Stocks, Gold on Track - 9/6/09

Stocks- Stocks declined last week into Thursday/Friday as forecast in last Sunday's post. Stocks have rallied off the low with the Dow up over 96 points on Friday. The market still appears on track for wave 5 of the ending diagonal pattern continuing into next Friday or the beginning of the following week. That period marks the top of the current minor time cycle and has confluence with the mid September major time cycle previously mentioned. Fibonacci resistance for a wave 5 top is at 1049 and 1063 on the S&P500.

Chart: SPY etf, 3 month chart (click to enlarge)

Gold- has been moving higher since wave E completed on 8/17(per the 8/18 blog entry) and had a strong rally last week. This upmove may last into the next minor time cycle that peaks next Tuesday/Wednesday, possibly around $1000/oz(100 on GLD). That would then be followed by a short term consolidation or correction before resuming the upmove.

Stocks - Ending diagonal trangle? - 8/30/09

Multiple technical indicators have given "negative technical signs". Specifically, the McClellan oscilator gave a sell signal on Friday. We also had negative divergence as the SP500 made a new high on Friday but not the Dow.

This may indicate a wave 4 down move this week that may not bottom until Thursday or Friday. That would then be followed by a wave 5 up move to a slight new high the following week above last weeks high. Friday the 11th or early the following week would be the target date for the wave 5 high. If that is the correct outlook, wave 5 would be the top of an ending diagonal trangle in the wave (C) position. This is a bearish pattern that is often followed by a fast move down toward the start of the triangle at the July 8th low. Resistance for a wave 5 top is at 1049 and 1063 on the S&P500. Updated wave count is shown below on the SPY etf. Click image to enlarge.

Stocks Update - 8/28/09

The S&P500 made a slight new high for the week and the year after the open this morning and continues to act stronger then expected. Wave structure is looking more bullish but cycles are becoming more bearish. Best guess is that the wave structure will win out until mid September when the next major time cycle is due.