GLD Wave Count - 1/24/10

Below is the GLD wave count showing wave (4) in progress. Gold stocks appear to be completing a large zigzag which helps to confirm this count.


Chart: Six month chart of GLD

New Dow Industrials Wave Count - 1/24/10

The last stock update called for the up move to continue to at least January 13th before a correction. The 14th ending up being the middle high of a triple top. The final top occurred on the 19th which was followed by a sharp selloff into Friday's close.

It appears the best count at this point will label this decline as wave C of a running flat from the October high as shown on the chart below. The most likely support area for this wave is Dow 10021 to 10075 sometime this week, before Friday. That flat would complete wave (2) from the October high. That means wave (1) of [3] from the July low ended at that high but the good news is that wave (3) of [3] is about to begin.

The alternate count would label this decline as wave a of Y of (2). If so, wave a of Y would be the first wave of either a flat or triangle and the correction has some time to go timewise but the price low could be this week.

Another alternate count would label the current correction a wave [4] from the March/2009 low. Wave [5] under this count would have to be shorter than the wave [3] length of 2000 Dow points since wave three can never be the shortest wave.

Chart: One year chart of DJIA

Update - 1/10/10

Stocks

Not much change since the last update with stocks continuing a steady move up. The S&P 500 and Dow still appear to be in wave (3) of [3] from the March/2009 low as detailed in the November 22nd post. The current up move should last at least until the middle or end of this week before any correction.

The previous short term price target of 10644 to 10683 on the Dow has been reached. The next target is 10940. The target for wave (3) of [3] remains 11720 to 16602 by mid July.

In the very first post last March, the March 6th low was labeled as an ending wave [C] of a very large flat correction from the 2000 high. That was the primary count and it still looks like the multi-year or multi-decade bull market that was forecast is correct.

GLD/Gold

GLD has continued to move up since the last post. It still looks like it is in wave B of (4) from the April/2009 low. As with stocks, the current up move should last at least until the middle or end of this week before any correction. The next price target is 114 to 115.

Gold Update - 12/27/09

Last Tuesday GLD made a final move down to 105.31 which is a .764 retracement of the last leg up into the December high. That low completed a zigzag formation which may be wave A of wave 4 from the December high. Since wave 2 that bottomed in July was a zigzag, the rule of alternation says wave 4 will be something other then a zigzag. The current upmove should continue at least until the end of this week. It needs to get above the 12/16 high to confirm that wave A of wave 4 is complete.

Updated GLD Wave Count - 12/13/09

GLD/Gold

Below is a two year chart showing the updated wave count for GLD. This count starts with wave [0] at the October/2008 low. Wave [1] tops at the February/2009 high, Wave [2] bottoms at the April/2009 low and wave [3] is in progress. The current correction is wave A of (4) from the April/2009 low.

Wave A of (4) may complete by the middle or end of this week most likely in the 107-108 area. That range is a .618 retracement area and the location of the 50 day moving average. Even after this large correction GLD is still up over 28% since the April/2009 low and just slightly below the price just one month ago.
Stocks

Stocks are still looking bullish into Christmas week. The new short term price target off the 12/9 low is 10644 to 10683 on the Dow.

Update - 12/6/09

Gold/GLD

GLD had a large correction on Friday but was only down a little over one point for the week and closed above the low of the previous week. The wave count is not yet complete to the upside. This correction could continue a couple more weeks but the price low may have already been made.

Stocks

Last week was on upweek with some volatility the last two days. The Dow has been moving sideways to higher since mid November. It is not yet clear whether the correction ended with the 11/27 low but the eventual breakout will be to the upside. The 11/27 low will probably be the price low of the correction if it is not yet complete. The longer term price target of 11720 to 16602 on the Dow is still intact. The 10621 target given last week was the short term target price off the 11/27 low.


Note: I have added my Twitter feed to the blog. I plan to do shorter term updates via Twitter.