Posts
It looks like the mid august high is in. This was forecasted in the July 23rd and August 5th posts along with a most likely price target in the 1060-1120 range on the S&P500. The price target was not reached but the Dow Jones Industrials did reach the .382 fib retracement of the 2007-2009 downmove.
The next major time cycle is in mid September. That may be when this downmove bottoms. It could also be a high if instead the market starts moving back up. This current downmove could bottom as soon as Tuesday if that is the case.
The best wave count at this point will label the upmove from early July to the August high as wave (c) of the entire move up from the March low. This count is shown below. It's also possible that the July-August upmove is wave (1) of primary wave 3, but cycles do not indicate that as they are becoming more bearish especially in September.
The S & P 500 did not reach the price target so this indicates that we probably have not seen the final high. However that may not happen until the 4th quarter or 1st half of 2010. In the meantime we may have a wide range sideways type market.
Gold
Gold has reached the price target for wave E. If instead this is wave C of (y), it could move down toward the July low.
