Stocks at or Near Short Term Top? - 10/11/09

Last weeks post called for stocks to move up to test the trendline connecting the September 23rd and 29th highs, with a test of the 9/23 high on a close above the trendline. That test of the trendline occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday with a close above it on Thursday. The market is now testing the September highs.

It looks like the most likely outcome of this test is for an early week top between Fridays high and the September high price or maybe slightly higher as the current swing cycle time band of 10/7 - 10/12 ends Monday. The early week high might be tested toward the end of the week. A close above the 9/23 top would probably be followed by a move up to the 1091 to 1095 fib resistance zone on the s&p 500.