Update - 2/4/10

Stocks

The Dow today closed below the 10021-10075 support area. The test of last Friday's low was a failure as that low was broken. The large decline did technical damage that indicates the bullish wave three count from the July/2009 low may not be valid. The odds that we have completed a primary wave (B) or wave A of (B) retracement of the entire October/07 to March/2009 decline are now at least 50/50. That is the alternate count given in the very first post in March/2009.

The wave A of primary wave (B) count seems to be the better count at this time and would bring a higher high in 2010 or 2011. That count means wave B of (B) began at the January top. Initial price targets for this decline are Dow 9700, 9100-9300(strongest) and 8600-8800. That could happen by early/mid March when the next significant cycle confluence is due. A chart will be provided by this weekend that will show these new counts.

GLD

Gold also went below last weeks low and now appears to be heading for a mid-February low when the next gold cycle is due. Wave count is now not clear but I remain long term bullish. The next support is 102-103 given previously and stronger support at 99-101.