Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave pattern to the downside

The TLT etf which tracks the Barclays 20+ year treasury bond index looks to be completing a five-wave expanding diagonal pattern to the downside on the monthly charts as shown by the blue labeling. It has a current dividend yield of 1.90%.

The 5th wave has had a run down close to the lower trendline but has not reached it. 5th waves in an expanding diagonal usually end before hitting that trendline so the 5th wave may be complete or very close to complete.

With that completed 5th wave count, if it is making a zigzag, wave b has an average retracement of wave a of 58% which is at 149.8. The range of that average retracement is within 20% which equates to 136-164. The 58% retracement level is shown on the chart below at letter b on the yellow labeling. The green trendline looks like a good place to put a price target and that trendline reaches the 58% retracement level around January of 2028. It hits the 136 level around January/2025 and the 164 level around January/2031. That makes for a six year time span, 2025-2031 to watch for that trendline to be reached by wave b.

Quarterly chart of iShares 20+ year treasury bond etf(TLT). Click to enlarge.

Eli Lilly Cycle Wave 3

LLY is in primary wave 3 of cycle wave 3 on the monthly chart. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave although the below chart shows a shorter wave 3 projection. This is shown below with wave 3 topping around 380 with the current price near 315.

Eli Lilly monthly chart. Primary count is orange labeling. Cycle count is blue labeling. Click to enlarge.

Bitcoin Diagonal 5th Wave Still in Progress - New Count

The move last week below the June/2021 low has changed the wave count for Bitcoin. I am still counting it as an ending diagonal as shown in prior posts, but it is now a larger diagonal formation. The move down from the Nov/2021 high is wave 2 of the larger diagonal. With this count, there could still be another move down below the May 12th low but it is not a requirement. 

Bi-monthly chart of Bitcoin showing updated count (orange labeling). Original diagonal 5th wave count is shown with purple labeling (updated in 2/6/22 post & originally given in this blog's Aug/2021 post). Long term count from 2010 is shown with blue labeling (long term count was originally given on this blog in January of 2021) . Click to enlarge.

LUV Wave Five

The bimonthly chart of Southwest Airlines (LUV) is showing a five wave impulse since 2009. Wave four bottomed in 2020 and wave 3 of wave five is currently in force most likely. The least bullish wave five possibility would be a contracting diagonal which is shown in the blue labeling in the chart below as would be seen if a standard contracting diagonal plays out with minimal length waves 3 and 5 (circled blue labeling). An impulse or expanding diagonal would be the more bullish possibilities and could go a lot higher.

Bimonthly chart of LUV. Blue labeling shows the
 contracting diagonal possibility for wave five.

Silica Holdings Wave 5

Silica Holdings(SLCA) wave count is indicating that wave 5 on the weekly chart is now in progress. There is a trendline in the 35-40 area that is a good target price. 

Weekly chart of SLCA. Blue labeling shows wave count & wave 5 price target area.

Bullish Counts on the DBC Commodities ETF

There are multiple ways for bullish counts on the DBC commodities ETF bi-weekly chart. One of these would place the wave 2 low at last November's low with wave 3 now in progress. 

The least bullish count is shown below with wave 1 topping on March 8th. Wave 2 would probably bottom later in 2022 perhaps at wave 4 of one lower degree shown by the aqua horizontal line. Wave 3 would then go to significantly higher levels from that low.

Bi-weekly chart of DBC commodities ETF (symbol DBC)

Centerra Gold is in a long term wave 3

Centerra Gold (CGAU) is in a long-term wave 3 as I see it. A seven year wave 1 ended in 2020 followed by a 13 month wave 2. If wave 3 is as long as wave 1, wave 3 would reach 35.68. Wave 3 is usually longer then wave 1 but it can be shorter. See chart below.

 

Bi-monthly chart of Centerra Gold showing long term counts.

Bitcoin 5th Wave Now in Progress

I am counting wave 4 as completed on Bitcoin at the January low. That leaves the 5th and final wave of the diagonal 5th wave before a potentially long and/or deep bear market. It would complete the wave count from the 2010 low. The orange labeling on the chart below shows the ending diagonal 5th wave count. The blue labeling is the count from the 2010 low.

Notice 3/30/22: The ending diagonal count (orange labeling) was originally given 6 months ago on this blog on the 8/5/21 post. The long-term count (blue labeling) was originally given 13 months ago in January of 2021.

The aforementioned analysis and counts were original research by this blogs author.

Any mention or use of these blog posts contents should give attribution to this blog.  

(Please note that the original posted chart was accidently deleted on 5/14/22. This original 5th wave count can be seen on the latest Bitcoin post of 5/14/22 where it is shown with purple labeling.)

S&P 500 Wave Four Appears to have Completed Last Week *Updated 2/27/22

I am counting last week's low on the S&P500 as wave 4 from the 2020 low. That leaves wave 5 to be completed in 2022. 

My count on wave 1 has changed to have ended in August/2020. With that count wave 1 lasted five months and if wave 5 is equal to wave 1 it would end around mid-year.

Wave 5 many times completes when hitting a line drawn from the end of wave 3 that is parallel to a line drawn through the bottoms of wave 2 and wave 4. Those are the purple lines on the chart below. That upper channel line intersects a long-term trend line around July near 5400(not shown). That seems like a logical point to put a maximum target for wave 5. As for a minimum target for wave 5, the guidelines say that wave 5 sometimes does not go above wave 3 but I have never seen that happen. From my experience wave 5 many times travels about 1 1/2 times the width of wave 4 but as far as I am concerned it only has to tick above the wave 3 high and that will be my minimum target. 

I tend to prefer the maximum target for wave 5 around the middle of 2022 but will be on the lookout for it to touch that upper purple line before then. A faster rising wave 5 would reach it before mid 2022 while a slower rising wave 5 may not reach it until late 2022 or 2023. 

Monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(orange) and wave 3 channel lines (purple).   

       

2/27 Update:

Wave 4 has expanded with the lower low last week. This does not change the outlook. Mid-year still looks like a logical time for wave 5 to reach the upper purple channel line. The wave 4 lower low does however decrease the ascent rate of the wave 3 channel lines. That will lower the mid-year max target price from about 5400 to under 5300. See updated chart below:

Updated monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(blue) and
wave 3 channel lines (purple). Click to enlarge.