S&P 500 Wave Four Appears to have Completed Last Week *Updated 2/27/22

I am counting last week's low on the S&P500 as wave 4 from the 2020 low. That leaves wave 5 to be completed in 2022. 

My count on wave 1 has changed to have ended in August/2020. With that count wave 1 lasted five months and if wave 5 is equal to wave 1 it would end around mid-year.

Wave 5 many times completes when hitting a line drawn from the end of wave 3 that is parallel to a line drawn through the bottoms of wave 2 and wave 4. Those are the purple lines on the chart below. That upper channel line intersects a long-term trend line around July near 5400(not shown). That seems like a logical point to put a maximum target for wave 5. As for a minimum target for wave 5, the guidelines say that wave 5 sometimes does not go above wave 3 but I have never seen that happen. From my experience wave 5 many times travels about 1 1/2 times the width of wave 4 but as far as I am concerned it only has to tick above the wave 3 high and that will be my minimum target. 

I tend to prefer the maximum target for wave 5 around the middle of 2022 but will be on the lookout for it to touch that upper purple line before then. A faster rising wave 5 would reach it before mid 2022 while a slower rising wave 5 may not reach it until late 2022 or 2023. 

Monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(orange) and wave 3 channel lines (purple).   

       

2/27 Update:

Wave 4 has expanded with the lower low last week. This does not change the outlook. Mid-year still looks like a logical time for wave 5 to reach the upper purple channel line. The wave 4 lower low does however decrease the ascent rate of the wave 3 channel lines. That will lower the mid-year max target price from about 5400 to under 5300. See updated chart below:

Updated monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(blue) and
wave 3 channel lines (purple). Click to enlarge.