Update - 8/17/09

S & P 500

It looks like the mid august high is in. This was forecasted in the July 23rd and August 5th posts along with a most likely price target in the 1060-1120 range on the S&P500. The price target was not reached but the Dow Jones Industrials did reach the .382 fib retracement of the 2007-2009 downmove.

The next major time cycle is in mid September. That may be when this downmove bottoms. It could also be a high if instead the market starts moving back up. This current downmove could bottom as soon as Tuesday if that is the case.

The best wave count at this point will label the upmove from early July to the August high as wave (c) of the entire move up from the March low. This count is shown below. It's also possible that the July-August upmove is wave (1) of primary wave 3, but cycles do not indicate that as they are becoming more bearish especially in September.

The S & P 500 did not reach the price target so this indicates that we probably have not seen the final high. However that may not happen until the 4th quarter or 1st half of 2010. In the meantime we may have a wide range sideways type market.

Gold

Gold has reached the price target for wave E. If instead this is wave C of (y), it could move down toward the July low.

Gold Update - 8/14/09

Gold is acting weaker then expected and may go down into an E wave low next week. The price target for an E wave low is in the 91-92 area. It is still looking bullish longer term and is also entering a seasonally strong time of the year. See below for current wave count labeling. The previous post looking for a D wave top near the June high price is still possible but is looking less likely.

S & P 500, Gold - 8/13/09

S & P 500

Has now entered the time band mentioned previously for a top but it has not yet reached the 1060-1120 price target. It still looks like it is in a wave 4. The fifth wave top is looking more likely to come toward the end of next week. However a move down from here may be followed by an upmove into a double top toward the end of next week and probably would indicate the 1060-1120 price target is not going to be reached until later this year.

Gold

Gold is still looking bullish and may top after stocks somewhere near the June high. The wave labeling for this move is still wave c of B of Y(or c of D). The gold time band for a top extends out to August 25th.

S & P 500 Wave Count Adjustment

See below for a minor adjustment to the short term S & P 500 Wave Count. The current wave 4 looks most likely to end on Monday. This does not change the outlook for a mid august top as detailed in the last post.

S & P 500, Gold Heading for Mid August Top

S & P 500

The S & P 500 appears to have completed a higher level wave 4 this morning and may now be in the final fifth wave of this upmove. The 50% retracement level of the Oct/07 to Mar/09 downmove is about 1090 plus or minus 30 points. That looks like the most likely price target for a mid August top.

The mid August time cycle high could be at least a multi-week high or maybe even the high for the year. The cycle will probably peak near August 14th or sometime the following week.

Gold

The Gold wave count is still either D or b of Y. Either count would probably top in the same timeframe as stocks given above.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 looks like it may be completing a fifth wave up from the early July low. If so it may complete by Friday instead of the Monday date that was mentioned previously. There is another cycle due the middle of next week. That could be a buy point for a move up into mid August. An alternate possibility is for the fifth wave to continue up into the middle of next week.


Gold

GLD and GDX have probably completed a correction. This upmove would be wave c of B of Y(or c of D) for GLD which would bring a move up toward the June high.