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Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Stocks Going Higher into Friday - 8/18/09
Two new short term cycles have been found that top this weekend. There is a very high probability that stocks will make a high on Friday or maybe Monday. Next week looks bearish with the possibility of a very large downmove.
Gold Update - 8/18/09
Gold
Gold has probably completed the E wave low of a large triangle as of yesterday. The target for the upmove out of the triangle is 105.5 on the GLD. That is the length of the widest part of the triangle(wave A) added to the wave E low. See chart below for primary and alternate wave count labeling. This expected upmove is most likely impulse wave 1 of a new primary wave. The wave structure of the entire correction from the Q1 2008 high is potentially very bullish. The gold stock ETF GDX would be a more leveraged way to play the current upmove although the wave count is not as clear.
Chart: GLD etf, 6 month chart
Gold has probably completed the E wave low of a large triangle as of yesterday. The target for the upmove out of the triangle is 105.5 on the GLD. That is the length of the widest part of the triangle(wave A) added to the wave E low. See chart below for primary and alternate wave count labeling. This expected upmove is most likely impulse wave 1 of a new primary wave. The wave structure of the entire correction from the Q1 2008 high is potentially very bullish. The gold stock ETF GDX would be a more leveraged way to play the current upmove although the wave count is not as clear.
Chart: GLD etf, 6 month chart
Monday, August 17, 2009
Update - 8/17/09
S & P 500
It looks like the mid august high is in. This was forecasted in the July 23rd and August 5th posts along with a most likely price target in the 1060-1120 range on the S&P500. The price target was not reached but the Dow Jones Industrials did reach the .382 fib retracement of the 2007-2009 downmove.
The next major time cycle is in mid September. That may be when this downmove bottoms. It could also be a high if instead the market starts moving back up. This current downmove could bottom as soon as Tuesday if that is the case.
The best wave count at this point will label the upmove from early July to the August high as wave (c) of the entire move up from the March low. This count is shown below. It's also possible that the July-August upmove is wave (1) of primary wave 3, but cycles do not indicate that as they are becoming more bearish especially in September.
The S & P 500 did not reach the price target so this indicates that we probably have not seen the final high. However that may not happen until the 4th quarter or 1st half of 2010. In the meantime we may have a wide range sideways type market.
Gold
Gold has reached the price target for wave E. If instead this is wave C of (y), it could move down toward the July low.
It looks like the mid august high is in. This was forecasted in the July 23rd and August 5th posts along with a most likely price target in the 1060-1120 range on the S&P500. The price target was not reached but the Dow Jones Industrials did reach the .382 fib retracement of the 2007-2009 downmove.
The next major time cycle is in mid September. That may be when this downmove bottoms. It could also be a high if instead the market starts moving back up. This current downmove could bottom as soon as Tuesday if that is the case.
The best wave count at this point will label the upmove from early July to the August high as wave (c) of the entire move up from the March low. This count is shown below. It's also possible that the July-August upmove is wave (1) of primary wave 3, but cycles do not indicate that as they are becoming more bearish especially in September.
The S & P 500 did not reach the price target so this indicates that we probably have not seen the final high. However that may not happen until the 4th quarter or 1st half of 2010. In the meantime we may have a wide range sideways type market.
Gold
Gold has reached the price target for wave E. If instead this is wave C of (y), it could move down toward the July low.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Gold Update - 8/14/09
Gold is acting weaker then expected and may go down into an E wave low next week. The price target for an E wave low is in the 91-92 area. It is still looking bullish longer term and is also entering a seasonally strong time of the year. See below for current wave count labeling. The previous post looking for a D wave top near the June high price is still possible but is looking less likely.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
S & P 500, Gold - 8/13/09
S & P 500
Has now entered the time band mentioned previously for a top but it has not yet reached the 1060-1120 price target. It still looks like it is in a wave 4. The fifth wave top is looking more likely to come toward the end of next week. However a move down from here may be followed by an upmove into a double top toward the end of next week and probably would indicate the 1060-1120 price target is not going to be reached until later this year.
Gold
Gold is still looking bullish and may top after stocks somewhere near the June high. The wave labeling for this move is still wave c of B of Y(or c of D). The gold time band for a top extends out to August 25th.
Has now entered the time band mentioned previously for a top but it has not yet reached the 1060-1120 price target. It still looks like it is in a wave 4. The fifth wave top is looking more likely to come toward the end of next week. However a move down from here may be followed by an upmove into a double top toward the end of next week and probably would indicate the 1060-1120 price target is not going to be reached until later this year.
Gold
Gold is still looking bullish and may top after stocks somewhere near the June high. The wave labeling for this move is still wave c of B of Y(or c of D). The gold time band for a top extends out to August 25th.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
S & P 500 Wave Count Adjustment
See below for a minor adjustment to the short term S & P 500 Wave Count. The current wave 4 looks most likely to end on Monday. This does not change the outlook for a mid august top as detailed in the last post.
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