Posts
Wave Commentary For Stocks:
(For chart update see bottom of this post)
Review
- The last post in May suggested that the February/2020 top would be tested or exceeded. That high was exceeded in August and the market is continuing to go higher as of this writing.
- It was suggested previously that the B Wave of a flat or triangle was in progress from the March low. That has been updated - see below.
- It was anticipated that the March low would be the low of the year. That was correct.
Wave Counts and Structure
- The market as shown by the S&P500, may be forming a diagonal five wave structure from the March/2020 low. That appears now to be a better count rather then the B wave of a flat or triangle as described previously. They have not been ruled out however.
- If a diagonal five wave structure is the correct count, it is not clear if it would be a leading or an ending diagonal, however I am leaning toward the more bullish view at this time. A leading diagonal would be much more bullish then an ending diagonal which in a worst case scenerio could be the end of the entire move up from March/2009.
Wave and Cyclical Outlook
- I have spotted a longer term sub cycle that has a peak in the early Spring. It has a tendency to bring tops so that syncs well with this outlook.
- There are no more bullish cycles this year so if a top is made around March it could be the high for the year.
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| Weekly chart of S&P500 showing projected wave count as described in above commentary. Wave 5 top is projected around March/2021 as shown. (click to enlarge) |
