Silica Holdings Wave 5

Silica Holdings(SLCA) wave count is indicating that wave 5 on the weekly chart is now in progress. There is a trendline in the 35-40 area that is a good target price. 

Weekly chart of SLCA. Blue labeling shows wave count & wave 5 price target area.

Bullish Counts on the DBC Commodities ETF

There are multiple ways for bullish counts on the DBC commodities ETF bi-weekly chart. One of these would place the wave 2 low at last November's low with wave 3 now in progress. 

The least bullish count is shown below with wave 1 topping on March 8th. Wave 2 would probably bottom later in 2022 perhaps at wave 4 of one lower degree shown by the aqua horizontal line. Wave 3 would then go to significantly higher levels from that low.

Bi-weekly chart of DBC commodities ETF (symbol DBC)

Centerra Gold is in a long term wave 3

Centerra Gold (CGAU) is in a long-term wave 3 as I see it. A seven year wave 1 ended in 2020 followed by a 13 month wave 2. If wave 3 is as long as wave 1, wave 3 would reach 35.68. Wave 3 is usually longer then wave 1 but it can be shorter. See chart below.

 

Bi-monthly chart of Centerra Gold showing long term counts.

Bitcoin 5th Wave Now in Progress

I am counting wave 4 as completed on Bitcoin at the January low. That leaves the 5th and final wave of the diagonal 5th wave before a potentially long and/or deep bear market. It would complete the wave count from the 2010 low. The orange labeling on the chart below shows the ending diagonal 5th wave count. The blue labeling is the count from the 2010 low.

Notice 3/30/22: The ending diagonal count (orange labeling) was originally given 6 months ago on this blog on the 8/5/21 post. The long-term count (blue labeling) was originally given 13 months ago in January of 2021.

The aforementioned analysis and counts were original research by this blogs author.

Any mention or use of these blog posts contents should give attribution to this blog.  

(Please note that the original posted chart was accidently deleted on 5/14/22. This original 5th wave count can be seen on the latest Bitcoin post of 5/14/22 where it is shown with purple labeling.)

S&P 500 Wave Four Appears to have Completed Last Week *Updated 2/27/22

I am counting last week's low on the S&P500 as wave 4 from the 2020 low. That leaves wave 5 to be completed in 2022. 

My count on wave 1 has changed to have ended in August/2020. With that count wave 1 lasted five months and if wave 5 is equal to wave 1 it would end around mid-year.

Wave 5 many times completes when hitting a line drawn from the end of wave 3 that is parallel to a line drawn through the bottoms of wave 2 and wave 4. Those are the purple lines on the chart below. That upper channel line intersects a long-term trend line around July near 5400(not shown). That seems like a logical point to put a maximum target for wave 5. As for a minimum target for wave 5, the guidelines say that wave 5 sometimes does not go above wave 3 but I have never seen that happen. From my experience wave 5 many times travels about 1 1/2 times the width of wave 4 but as far as I am concerned it only has to tick above the wave 3 high and that will be my minimum target. 

I tend to prefer the maximum target for wave 5 around the middle of 2022 but will be on the lookout for it to touch that upper purple line before then. A faster rising wave 5 would reach it before mid 2022 while a slower rising wave 5 may not reach it until late 2022 or 2023. 

Monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(orange) and wave 3 channel lines (purple).   

       

2/27 Update:

Wave 4 has expanded with the lower low last week. This does not change the outlook. Mid-year still looks like a logical time for wave 5 to reach the upper purple channel line. The wave 4 lower low does however decrease the ascent rate of the wave 3 channel lines. That will lower the mid-year max target price from about 5400 to under 5300. See updated chart below:

Updated monthly chart of S&P500 showing wave count(blue) and
wave 3 channel lines (purple). Click to enlarge.

S&P 500 Intermediate Wave Four (*Updated 10/11/21)

I am counting this correction as intermediate wave 4 within a larger bull market. If that outlook is correct, the high of the year may have been seen but there could be 1-2 tests of that high over the coming weeks or months which could go a bit above that high. 

The early September high is the top of primary wave 3 as I am counting it. I would now be looking for a multi-week or multi-month wave 4. Wave 5 may then be approximately equal to the length of wave one which tends to be the case when wave 3 is extended. * An alternate possibility is that wave 4 bottomed at the October low. If so wave 5 should complete by the end of the year.  I am not expecting that the anticipated wave 5 to be the top of this bull market. This Elliott Wave outlook is shown graphically on the below bi-weekly chart. The Vanguard S&P500 ETF is used as a proxy for the S&P500 index. A strong move above the September high in the next few months below this months low may negate this outlook.

One of the great things about Elliott Wave is the big picture view it provides so as to help to see when to hold and when the outlook is starting to work against you. No market analysis methodology can predict the market perfectly every time. 

S&P500 index bi-weekly chart as shown by the VOO etf. The primary wave 3 high is shown by the circled 3 in early September. (click to enlarge)