Gold Update - 12/27/09

Last Tuesday GLD made a final move down to 105.31 which is a .764 retracement of the last leg up into the December high. That low completed a zigzag formation which may be wave A of wave 4 from the December high. Since wave 2 that bottomed in July was a zigzag, the rule of alternation says wave 4 will be something other then a zigzag. The current upmove should continue at least until the end of this week. It needs to get above the 12/16 high to confirm that wave A of wave 4 is complete.

Updated GLD Wave Count - 12/13/09

GLD/Gold

Below is a two year chart showing the updated wave count for GLD. This count starts with wave [0] at the October/2008 low. Wave [1] tops at the February/2009 high, Wave [2] bottoms at the April/2009 low and wave [3] is in progress. The current correction is wave A of (4) from the April/2009 low.

Wave A of (4) may complete by the middle or end of this week most likely in the 107-108 area. That range is a .618 retracement area and the location of the 50 day moving average. Even after this large correction GLD is still up over 28% since the April/2009 low and just slightly below the price just one month ago.
Stocks

Stocks are still looking bullish into Christmas week. The new short term price target off the 12/9 low is 10644 to 10683 on the Dow.

Update - 12/6/09

Gold/GLD

GLD had a large correction on Friday but was only down a little over one point for the week and closed above the low of the previous week. The wave count is not yet complete to the upside. This correction could continue a couple more weeks but the price low may have already been made.

Stocks

Last week was on upweek with some volatility the last two days. The Dow has been moving sideways to higher since mid November. It is not yet clear whether the correction ended with the 11/27 low but the eventual breakout will be to the upside. The 11/27 low will probably be the price low of the correction if it is not yet complete. The longer term price target of 11720 to 16602 on the Dow is still intact. The 10621 target given last week was the short term target price off the 11/27 low.


Note: I have added my Twitter feed to the blog. I plan to do shorter term updates via Twitter.

Update - 11/30/09

Stocks

Last week the Dow moved up into a double top on Monday and Wednesday that was lower than the previous weeks high. That was followed by a large move down on Friday that went below last weeks low in what looks like a C wave. That was the scenario given last week with the C wave down bottoming in early December. It now looks like the C wave has already bottomed. If so, the upside target will be at least 10621 on the Dow. The bullish longer term wave count shown in the last post still looks like the best count.

Gold/GLD

GLD topped last week in the 116-118 resistance zone, followed by a sharp selloff Friday. That low will probably hold with the next targets being 128 and 137.

Looking at New Bullish Wave Count for Stocks, Gold Update - 11/22/09

Stocks

After further analysis of the wave structure and other factors, I am backing off the more bearish outlook of the previous post even though stocks were weaker then anticipated last week. This week there may be a holiday rally and If the rally tops below last weeks highs, it could be B wave to be followed by a C wave down into early December. If that scenario plays out, early December may be a good time to add to positions.

The reason for the more bullish outlook is the wave structure, the wave count for gold and the seasonally strong period that lasts until early Spring. Gold is in a bullish wave three and still looks like it could go much higher. Since gold and stocks have been well correlated, that indicates stocks could also be in a wave three from the July low and in wave three of three from the November low. This count is shown below on the Dow. The running double three pattern in wave two is very bullish. The wave one of three possibility was first mentioned on 8/17 as an alternate count.

If that is the correct count, it gives rise to the following calculations for wave three. The length of wave three is usually 1.5 to 3.5 times the price movement of Wave one. That gives a price target for wave three in the 11720 to 16602 range. Wave three is usually 1 to 4 times wave one in time. That would give a time target for wave three sometime between 10/10/09 and 7/13/10. The wave count indicates quite a ways to go, so it may be toward the latter part of that range and probably not before February.

Chart: Six month chart of DJIA


Gold/GLD

Gold was strong again last week finishing near the highs of the week and above the 112.75 target. The wave structure is still very bullish. Next target range is 116 -118.

Stocks Forming Top?, Gold Met Target Price - 11/18 /09

Stocks

With the move higher this week above last weeks high, stocks now appear to be forming a topping formation with a wave five completion possible between this Friday and Tuesday of next week. The 1121.05 area mentioned previously looks like the best target price for the high on the S&P500. The Dow and S&P500 are both in the area of a 50% retracement of the move down into the 2009 crash low. Because of that, and the possible count of five waves up from the March/2009 low, the correction could be the largest correction since the March bottom.

Gold/GLD

GLD met the 112.75 target price today. It is possible to count five waves up from the late October low, but with stocks possibly not topping until next Tuesday, it may work its way higher along with stocks, possibly even as high as around 117.

Stocks and Gold Update - 11/15/09

Gold/GLD

GLD has not yet reached the 112.75 target but has met the minimum requirements for five waves up so it could finish this up wave at any time. The five minute chart looks like it may finish waves three thru five by Tuesday, possibly around 111.35. A short term gold top would also indicate that stocks are also near a top.

Stocks

It is possible that stocks completed five waves up on Wednesday. But with gold likely not yet at its crest, stocks may form a lower double top early this week. It appears likely it will be a short term top and may bottom as early as the end of the week. Initial support is 10086 and 10003 on the Dow. The current wave appears more corrective than impulsive so it may be a B wave or X wave within a larger correction. That is also indicated by the fact that both the Nasdaq composite and NYSE composite have not gone above the October highs.

Stocks and Gold Update - 11/11/09

Gold/GLD

On Monday GLD hit 108.59, which verified the current wave is part of a larger wave three instead of a wave five about to complete, as discussed in Sunday's post. That is bullish with the next price target being around 112.75. Todays close of 109.61 is already more than one point above the 108.59 level with more then three points to go to reach the next target.

As for wave structure, it looks like it is in wave five of the move up from the 10/28 low. Based on that count and cycles analysis, the next price target could be reached sometime between Friday and early next week.

Stocks

Stocks are moving higher with gold and may top in the same time frame. Today stocks went past the 1093 resistance and also the October high indicating the next swing cycle on 11/14 is inverting into a high instead of a low. The wave structure is not as clear as gold but may now be in wave four up from the 11/2 low, to be followed by the final wave five. The 1.27 fibonacci extension of 1121.05 appears to be the most likely price target for wave five.

Also, since the October high was taken out, that may change the preferred wave count. That analysis will be provided in the next post.

Stocks and Gold Update - 11/8/09

Stocks

The s&p500 made a low on Monday at 1029.38, .62 points below the 1030 support level given last Sunday. Stocks then continued higher into the end of the week as forecast with the high of the week occurring on Friday morning. Cyclically, that high could have been the top of this short term up move however the wave structure does not look complete and also the s&p500 is in between resistance zones. We are also currently withing the next swing cycle zone(11/6 to 11/9) so it could go up for 1-2 more days into the next resistance zone at 1074 to 1077, which is not much beyond Friday's high. Next resistance is at 1085 and then 1093.

Gold/GLD

Gold had another good week, moving well beyond the October high and the target price of 105.5. Wave four ended on 10/28 with wave five either complete as of Friday or near complete. GLD is within a swing cycle zone that ends today but could allow one more day of higher prices since it occurs on a weekend. Initial support for a wave two low is 100 to 101 on GLD.

One thing to watch is the length of wave five. If it extends beyond 108.58 on GLD that would make wave three shorter than wave five and wave one, which invalidates the wave count as wave three can never be the shortest wave within a five wave impulse. If that happens it indicates we are within a larger wave three that would bring much higher prices sooner rather then later.

As has been stated previously, the long term gold chart patterns look very bullish and could bring much higher prices. For that reason it is best to do minimal amounts of profit taking at short term tops as the wave counts could be wrong and surprises will tend to be to the upside.

Gold/GLD etf

Below is the updated wave count for GLD that shows wave 4 which may still be in progress. The price low for wave 4 has most likely been made but there may still be more work to do timewise. Gold has held up very well compared to stocks during this correction. In anticipation of that possibility, I moved most of my GDX gold stock position to UGL(2x gold etf) in mid October.


Stocks

The updated S&P 500 wave count is below. The wave count for stocks is not as clear as for gold. It appears the best count puts wave five up from the March low to be at the October high or alternatively at the September high.

Fridays unexpected big down move took out Thursdays low with a price low of 1033.53, 3 1/2 points above the next support at 1030. If 1030 does not hold, the next support is near 1020, and then 990-1000(the strongest area of support). The next swing cycle zone is 11/2 - 11/4, so it appears the market may be making a low into that period as originally concluded on 10/28. The most likely time for the endpoint of an up move off that low still looks like the end of this week.

Overall, it looks like the most likely time and price for the low of this correction is 990-1000 in mid November.

Stocks Update - 10/29/09

It looks like the first down leg completed 3 points above the 1039 support area. The most likely time for the top of this up leg is the middle or end of next week. The strength of the up move will determine if the correction is going to be a flat, triangle or a zigzag. If its's a sideways correction the high of this wave will be somewhere around the October high.

Stocks Update - 10/28/09

The S&P 500 today closed below the 1050 support area. The price action today was bearish and the wave structure does not look complete. This move could continue down into early next week as the next swing cycle zone is 11/2 - 11/4. Next support is at 1039 and 1020. The wave count is still unclear. Best guess is this is the first leg down of a larger correction that may continue 2-3 more weeks. It's not clear at this point whether this is the first wave down of a sideways correction or a zigzag.

S&P 500 Price Targets for Low

Last Fridays post indicated that a short term stock market top was probably made the previous day on 10/15. On Monday 10/19, the S&P 500 made a slight closing high above the previous weeks high. That was the highest closing price of the week with the market now near the lows of the week as this is being written.

Stocks look highly probable to have a continued decline into the early or middle of next week as the C wave of a zigzag completes. The fib price targets for the low are 1062 and 1050.

Probable Short Term Top in Stocks - 10/16/09

It appears stocks made a short term top yesterday, with the s&p 500 topping one point above the 1091-1095 price range given in previous posts. That outlook may be negated with a close above yesterdays high. The move may go down to test the early October low in the next two weeks.

Gold/GLD Wave Count, Sugar/SGG - 10/11/09

Gold / GLD

See chart below for current GLD wave count. Wave 3 is currently in progress, to be followed by waves 4 and 5. Since wave 3 has already reached 104.15, the 105.5 target from the end of the triangle at the end of August should be easily surpassed before wave 5 completes, and possibly before wave 3 completes.
Chart: SPDR Gold Trust six month chart, click to enlarge


Sugar / SGG

Sugar appears to be at or near the completion of a zigzag from the late August high with an initial target near the late September high. This upmove can be played with the iPath sugar etf, symbol SGG.

Stocks at or Near Short Term Top? - 10/11/09

Last weeks post called for stocks to move up to test the trendline connecting the September 23rd and 29th highs, with a test of the 9/23 high on a close above the trendline. That test of the trendline occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday with a close above it on Thursday. The market is now testing the September highs.

It looks like the most likely outcome of this test is for an early week top between Fridays high and the September high price or maybe slightly higher as the current swing cycle time band of 10/7 - 10/12 ends Monday. The early week high might be tested toward the end of the week. A close above the 9/23 top would probably be followed by a move up to the 1091 to 1095 fib resistance zone on the s&p 500.

Stocks at or Near Short Term Low - 10/4/09

Stocks

Stocks appear to be at or near a short term low. The Dow has pulled back to the 50 day moving average and trendline support. Most likely, this will bring an upmove that will test the trendline connecting the September tops(shown on chart). That could happen by the end of the week. A close above that trendline should bring a test of the September 23rd top. A close below Friday's low would be bearish.
Chart: Dow Industrials three month chart, Click to enlarge.


Gold

Gold completed a zigzag at the 9/25 low(one trading day before the 9/27 - 9/28 swing cycle date) . It will probably move up along with stocks this week.

Stocks Update - 9/27/09

Stocks made a top on Wednesday per the 9/20 blog post forecast. The price target for the top was not reached but the minimum requirements for five waves up were met per the 9/23 blog post. The top of wave five only has to go one tick above the high of wave four for the count to be valid and wave structure trumps price targets when a wave is completing. The forecast was for 250 points up on the Dow from the end of wave four to the top of wave five and the actual number was 138 points up. From the low of wave four to the top of wave five the move was 250 points, so that was an interesting coincidence.

The next swing cycle date is Monday, 9/28, so wave a down from last weeks top may end by Tuesday with sideways or higher price action to the end of the week as wave a is retraced. The correction started with a key reversal on Wednesday, but so far seems fairly mild. So it is to early to determine what the wave count is from the March low to last weeks top.

T-Bonds, Gold Update - 9/25/09

T-Bonds/TBT

Has made a slightly lower low below the 9/11 low. However this does not change the outlook that at least a multi-week low is forming. It appears that wave iv expanded into a triangle with wave v about to complete by early next week. Also, the initial target price near 54 remains the same.

Chart: TBT six month chart, click to enlarge

Gold/GLD

GLD went below Mondays low on Thursday. Another swing cycle zone is due 9/27 – 9/28 although cycle indicators have not been as reliable lately. Apparantly the previous swing cycle zone brought a top one day early on 9/17 instead of a bottom on 9/21(and could be making a bottom one day early today). Otherwise gold still looks bullish longer term and the comments from 9/20 still apply:
“it has not yet reached the target for the upmove out of the triangle which is 105.5 on GLD. Overall, the [short term] outlook is not nearly as clear for gold as it is for stocks. A correction from here should be fairly mild until the next upleg begins."

Stocks Have Met Minimum Requirements for Five Waves Up - 9/23/09

Stocks have met the minimum requirements for five waves up from the 9/2 low even though the price targets have not been met. If the top is in, the severity of the decline should determine the wave count from the March low, per Sundays post.

Gold / GLD - 9/23/09

Gold may have made a low for the week on Monday during the 9/18 - 9/22 cycle reversal zone. If so the count could be wave two from the wave one top on 9/11. It would also indicate
wave three is in progress with a minimum target of 105.5 on GLD.

Gold / GLD - 9/20/09

Gold could have made a top on Thursday one day before the 9/18 to 9/22 swing reversal zone but it has not yet given a technical sell signal. Also, it has not yet reached the target for the upmove out of the triangle which is 105.5 on GLD. Overall, the outlook is not nearly as clear for gold as it is for stocks. A correction from here should be fairly mild until the next upleg begins. Gold has also tended to trend in the same direction as stocks recently which could indicate it will move sideways or make a lower high next week as stocks are moving up.

Stocks: Top Next Week Looks Probable - 9/20/09

From the early September low, the wave count shows three waves up have been completed with wave four in progress, to be followed by wave five next week. The wave three top was just under 1075 which is within the 1069-1075 resistance area given Wednesday. On the s&p500, the price target for wave five is the 1088-1095 resistance area. On the Dow Industrials, this corresponds with the 10009-10074 range. The 50% retracement of the entire decline from the 2007 high is 1121 plus or minus 30 points(1091– 1251) on the s&p500 and 10334 plus or minus 265 points(10069-10599) on the Dow. The price overlaps between the two price zones are 1091-1095 on the s&p and 10069-10074 on the Dow which are the most likely price targets for the wave five top. The current cycle reversal zone of 9/18 to 9/22 ends Tuesday and is the most likely time for the top. If that is the correct timing and outlook, the Dow would need to rally 250 points by Wednesday from the end of wave four(probably on Monday).

It will be possible to count five waves up from the March low to next weeks probable top. If so, it would probably be either wave (1) of primary wave one, or wave (a) of a corrective zigzag from the March low. Either count would be followed by a substantial correction, equal to or larger than the mid June to early July decline. It is also possible it is in wave 3 of (3) of a larger primary wave one, however the first two counts appear more likely. This bullish third count would bring a milder correction off the wave five top or even a continued move higher without a correction.


Chart: S&P500 one month chart, click to enlarge

Stocks - 9/16/09

As with gold, the upcoming cycle reversal zone for stocks(9/18 to 9/22) appears to be inverting into a high instead of a low. Wavecount is unclear. Resistance is at 1069-1075 and 1088-1095 on the s&p500.

Gold Update - 9/15/09

Gold today gave a technical buy signal. This may bring a new high on Wednesday above last Fridays high. That may indicate that the time cycle reversal zone of 9/18 to 9/22 will invert and bring a high instead of a low.

Stocks, T-Bonds, Gold - 9/13/09

Stocks

Stocks advanced last week into Friday as forecast and are now encountering the mid September "time cycle confluence" area first noticed/mentioned here on 8/17/09. The outlook for an ending diagonal triangle still looks intact as the s&p500 made an apparant fifth wave high just under a 1049 fibonacci reistance point. If this is the correct outlook, this coming week should be a down week with a possible swing low around Friday or early the following week as the next minor time cycle is 9/20 to 9/22. Initial downside support is at 1020 and 996 on the s&p with a possible eventual bottom near the July low.

However, the Dow Industrials did not make a fifth wave high last week. This may indicate an intraday upmove on Monday that takes the Dow to a slight new high to complete wave five. This would probably take the s&p500 to the 1049-1055 area as there is another fib resistance point at 1054.
Correction, 9/14/09 9:20 am ct: Actually it was the DIA etf that did not make a higher 5th wave high last week, not the Dow Industrials index, so the last paragraph can probably be ignored as the count on the actual index is more important then the etf.

Treasury Bonds

Bonds may have completed a zigzag high into fibonacci resistance on Friday. In addition, there is a minor treasury bond time cycle that peaked this weekend. This should bring a down week for bonds, possibly into 9/20 to 9/23 when there is a minor time cycle due. Since the CPI and PPI inflation numbers come out this week this could indicate an uptick in inflation will be shown by the reports. It can be played with the inverse T-Bond etf's TBT or TMV(triple beta). The initial upside price target for these etf's is near the August high with an eventual move up toward the June high or higher.

Chart: TBT etf, 6 month chart (click to enlarge)
White horizontal line is initial target


Gold

Gold is in a time cycle reversal area from the 12th to the 15th. It is possible to count five waves up but it may extend a little higher on Monday before reversing. A decline from that top could extend down into the next time cycle reversal area of 9/18 to 9/22.

Stocks, Gold on Track - 9/6/09

Stocks- Stocks declined last week into Thursday/Friday as forecast in last Sunday's post. Stocks have rallied off the low with the Dow up over 96 points on Friday. The market still appears on track for wave 5 of the ending diagonal pattern continuing into next Friday or the beginning of the following week. That period marks the top of the current minor time cycle and has confluence with the mid September major time cycle previously mentioned. Fibonacci resistance for a wave 5 top is at 1049 and 1063 on the S&P500.

Chart: SPY etf, 3 month chart (click to enlarge)

Gold- has been moving higher since wave E completed on 8/17(per the 8/18 blog entry) and had a strong rally last week. This upmove may last into the next minor time cycle that peaks next Tuesday/Wednesday, possibly around $1000/oz(100 on GLD). That would then be followed by a short term consolidation or correction before resuming the upmove.

Stocks - Ending diagonal trangle? - 8/30/09

Multiple technical indicators have given "negative technical signs". Specifically, the McClellan oscilator gave a sell signal on Friday. We also had negative divergence as the SP500 made a new high on Friday but not the Dow.

This may indicate a wave 4 down move this week that may not bottom until Thursday or Friday. That would then be followed by a wave 5 up move to a slight new high the following week above last weeks high. Friday the 11th or early the following week would be the target date for the wave 5 high. If that is the correct outlook, wave 5 would be the top of an ending diagonal trangle in the wave (C) position. This is a bearish pattern that is often followed by a fast move down toward the start of the triangle at the July 8th low. Resistance for a wave 5 top is at 1049 and 1063 on the S&P500. Updated wave count is shown below on the SPY etf. Click image to enlarge.

Stocks Update - 8/28/09

The S&P500 made a slight new high for the week and the year after the open this morning and continues to act stronger then expected. Wave structure is looking more bullish but cycles are becoming more bearish. Best guess is that the wave structure will win out until mid September when the next major time cycle is due.

Stocks Update - 8/23/09

Stocks moved up this week into Friday as forecast after the big Monday selloff. However the move was rather strong and went thru resistance to close at a new high for the year. This casts some doubt on the bearish outlook given previously. Monday is a key day. Most likely, stocks will go slightly higher Monday which may be the high for the week. There is resistance at 1032 and 1042 on the S&P 500. If stocks are strong up on Monday, that may change the outlook to bullish with a possible high at the next major time cycle due in mid September.

Stocks Going Higher into Friday - 8/18/09

Two new short term cycles have been found that top this weekend. There is a very high probability that stocks will make a high on Friday or maybe Monday. Next week looks bearish with the possibility of a very large downmove.

Gold Update - 8/18/09

Gold

Gold has probably completed the E wave low of a large triangle as of yesterday. The target for the upmove out of the triangle is 105.5 on the GLD. That is the length of the widest part of the triangle(wave A) added to the wave E low. See chart below for primary and alternate wave count labeling. This expected upmove is most likely impulse wave 1 of a new primary wave. The wave structure of the entire correction from the Q1 2008 high is potentially very bullish. The gold stock ETF GDX would be a more leveraged way to play the current upmove although the wave count is not as clear.

Chart: GLD etf, 6 month chart

Update - 8/17/09

S & P 500

It looks like the mid august high is in. This was forecasted in the July 23rd and August 5th posts along with a most likely price target in the 1060-1120 range on the S&P500. The price target was not reached but the Dow Jones Industrials did reach the .382 fib retracement of the 2007-2009 downmove.

The next major time cycle is in mid September. That may be when this downmove bottoms. It could also be a high if instead the market starts moving back up. This current downmove could bottom as soon as Tuesday if that is the case.

The best wave count at this point will label the upmove from early July to the August high as wave (c) of the entire move up from the March low. This count is shown below. It's also possible that the July-August upmove is wave (1) of primary wave 3, but cycles do not indicate that as they are becoming more bearish especially in September.

The S & P 500 did not reach the price target so this indicates that we probably have not seen the final high. However that may not happen until the 4th quarter or 1st half of 2010. In the meantime we may have a wide range sideways type market.

Gold

Gold has reached the price target for wave E. If instead this is wave C of (y), it could move down toward the July low.

Gold Update - 8/14/09

Gold is acting weaker then expected and may go down into an E wave low next week. The price target for an E wave low is in the 91-92 area. It is still looking bullish longer term and is also entering a seasonally strong time of the year. See below for current wave count labeling. The previous post looking for a D wave top near the June high price is still possible but is looking less likely.

S & P 500, Gold - 8/13/09

S & P 500

Has now entered the time band mentioned previously for a top but it has not yet reached the 1060-1120 price target. It still looks like it is in a wave 4. The fifth wave top is looking more likely to come toward the end of next week. However a move down from here may be followed by an upmove into a double top toward the end of next week and probably would indicate the 1060-1120 price target is not going to be reached until later this year.

Gold

Gold is still looking bullish and may top after stocks somewhere near the June high. The wave labeling for this move is still wave c of B of Y(or c of D). The gold time band for a top extends out to August 25th.

S & P 500 Wave Count Adjustment

See below for a minor adjustment to the short term S & P 500 Wave Count. The current wave 4 looks most likely to end on Monday. This does not change the outlook for a mid august top as detailed in the last post.

S & P 500, Gold Heading for Mid August Top

S & P 500

The S & P 500 appears to have completed a higher level wave 4 this morning and may now be in the final fifth wave of this upmove. The 50% retracement level of the Oct/07 to Mar/09 downmove is about 1090 plus or minus 30 points. That looks like the most likely price target for a mid August top.

The mid August time cycle high could be at least a multi-week high or maybe even the high for the year. The cycle will probably peak near August 14th or sometime the following week.

Gold

The Gold wave count is still either D or b of Y. Either count would probably top in the same timeframe as stocks given above.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 looks like it may be completing a fifth wave up from the early July low. If so it may complete by Friday instead of the Monday date that was mentioned previously. There is another cycle due the middle of next week. That could be a buy point for a move up into mid August. An alternate possibility is for the fifth wave to continue up into the middle of next week.


Gold

GLD and GDX have probably completed a correction. This upmove would be wave c of B of Y(or c of D) for GLD which would bring a move up toward the June high.

Update

S&P 500
The cycle mentioned in previous posts is due Monday that may bring a short term top. However a higher high is looking more likely for mid August as a new cycle has been identified that is more likely to bring a high then a low at that time. A mid August high would then be followed by a decline into the late August cycle mentioned previously. Wave counts are shown below.


Gold
Gold is still on track for a test of the early June high. It may make a short term top along with the S&P 500 Monday but this would likely be a B wave followed by a C wave up that would bring the test of the June high.

S & P 500 Cycles, Gold

S & P 500

The S & P 500 may be getting close to a short term top here cyclicly but the wave structure does not look complete. The cycles mentioned previously for the last half of July may be a high instead of a low. Sideways action is looking more likely the next few weeks or longer as there is a late August cycle that is more likely to be a low. An August low might be an ending C wave of a flat.


Gold

Gold still looks on track for testing the early June high.

S & P 500, Gold

S & P 500

I think the S & P 500 is at or near a low here. The wave counts are shown below for the SPY etf. However cycles could still allow for a lower low by the week of July 20th. I think this upmove can go at least to the 908-922 on the S & P 500 before any new downturn.




Gold

Gold may also be making a C wave (or A of Y) low here. Either count would bring a move up toward the early June high. Cycles may also allow for a lower move down toward the April low by the week of July 27th. The gold stocks etf GDX is a better way to play a gold upmove as it has a clearer pattern and is giving quadruple divergences per my technical indicators at the current low verses the June low.

Gold Update

The gold etf GLD is bouncing off of strong fibonacci support which may continue for at least a couple of more days. I think this bounce is either a B wave within wave C as shown in the first chart or it is a B wave within a wave Y of a double three correction from the February high(shown in 2nd chart).

A wave C would have support at 88.75-89.5, 87.70 or the 84.84 April low. A wave Y would trade generally sideways between the early June high and the mid June low while the structure completes. Wave Y would probably be a triangle or flat.

S&P 500 New Alternate Counts, USO

S&P 500

I have identified two new S&P 500 alternate counts. Of the four counts two indicate higher prices from here, one indicates lower prices and the other indicates a more sideways pattern before another leg up.


Crude Oil

Crude Oil etf USO still looks bullish with a target near 41 or 44. A move below Wednesday's low would probably negate that view.

S&P 500 Alternate Count

I am looking at an S&P 500 alternate count with June 11th being a fifth wave high. Wave two support would be at 888, 845-857 and 811-821.

Stock Market Update

S&P 500

The S&P 500 appears to have completed a bullish cup and handle formation. This may increase the chances of a fifth wave extension, however my current target remains 980-1000. Next resistance past 1000 is at 1018.


NASDAQ Composite

The NASDAQ count shows that we are now in a wave 3 (or C). A wave 3 count may correspond better with a fifth wave extension on the S&P 500. The next price target is 1997 and I would not be surprised to see at least 2200 before waves 3, 4 and 5 complete.

Crude Oil

Crude oil may have completed a zigzag as of Tuesdays high. Support is at 33.75, 32 and 30.25 on the USO etf shown below. A move back above Tuesdays high within the next few days would negate that count with a possible next target near 41 or 44.

Copper wave 5

The copper etf JJC has completed wave 4 and is now in wave 5. Initial target is 34. Above 36 is more likely where the top will be.

S&P 500 wave 4 complete, VPRT

S&P 500

It's looking like the wave 4 count is the correct count from the early may high. That would make the May top a wave 3 (or possibly wave A). Wave 4 probably ended late last week. If not it could finish by the middle or end of next week. The target for wave 5 would be 980-1000 unless it extends. An extended fifth wave could go much higher. This is possible since waves 1 and 3 are about the same length.



VistaPrint

VistaPrint Limited, symbol VPRT looks like it is about to end a wave 4 with a fifth wave target in the mid-upper 40's.

Gold Update

Below is a six month chart of the GLD gold etf. It could be making a B wave top here followed by a C wave down. If not, the B wave may crest either near 96 or the February top of 98.99. However I am longer term bullish and believe the C wave will probably hold above the 200 ma currently at 84 1/2.

S&P 500 Alternate Count

I am looking at a possible alternative count for the S&P 500. This would put the wave 1 or wave A high at the May 8th top. It would probably be weeks or maybe months before any final high is made as the wave structures complete.

It's also possible an A wave is in progress from the May 8th top This would be part of a wave 4 correction(wave 3 top instead of wave 5). If so, wave A may complete by early next week.

Update

S&P 500

Todays action indicates that wave 2 (or wave B) ended with the April 21st low. So we are probably now in wave 3 (or C). As stated previously, I think the strength will continue for several more weeks(as waves 3 thru 5 or wave C complete).

Gold

My blog entry on April 7th identified the initial low for this current upmove. As I stated then, I am looking for a move up toward the February top(98.99 on the GLD etf). The first price target is around 94 on GLD.

Crude Oil

The USO etf is fast approaching my 1st target of 32 as stated in my April 27th blog entry. I think the strength will continue for several more weeks as this current wave completes(probably above 35).

S&P 500 Update

Yesterdays move above the April 17th high on the S&P 500 has invalidated my previous wave count. My updated count moves the wave 5 high to April 13th. The market has been showing good strength which I think will continue for several more weeks as waves 2 thru 5(or B,C) complete. However, we may have made a short term top here as a possible upwave within wave 2 completes.

Crude Oil Low

This is a six month chart of the Crude Oil ETF USO. The April 21st low is a .618 retracement of the A wave up from the February low. Todays sharp selloff looks like a successful retest of that low. The 1st price target is the wave A March high at 32. The April 21st low also forms the right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom formation.

S&P 500 Top?

Below is my count for the S&P 500 showing a possible completed 5 wave formation at Thursdays close. If so, elliott wave rules would call for a move down to at least the start of the triangle(point 4).

Gold Low

Below is a six month chart of the GLD etf. Gold appears to have completed an ABC low from the February top. The point C low is a 50% retracement of the move up from November. This can be traded using GLD or DGP etf's for a move up toward the February top from here.


Stocks

US stocks look like they may be making a top by mid April.

Long Term Counts

Welcome to my blog. Below is my long term elliott wave count on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first one is my primary count and the second one is my alternate count.



This is my primary count. It may imply a multi-year or multi-decade bull market from point C. Point C is the low made on March 6, 2009.



This is my altenate count. It implies a new low below point A after a B wave retracement of wave A. This lower low would probably occur in 2010 or maybe 2011.